U.S. February S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI preliminary figures both below expectations

CoinShares: Digital asset investment products saw a net inflow of $619 million last week

According to CoinShares weekly report, digital asset investment products saw a net inflow of $619 million on March 9, reflecting the market's response to the Iran crisis. Despite poor non-farm payroll data, overall sentiment remains positive, with the United States contributing the majority of the funds. Bitcoin and Ethereum performed notably.

Bitcoin shows resilience, options market indicates easing of downside concerns

Despite international oil prices rising to $115 and the market shifting to a defensive stance, Bitcoin has shown resilience, with options flow indicating reduced downside concerns. Market optimism towards Bitcoin is returning, with focus on this week's economic data.

U.S. financial industry job openings drop to 13-year lows, with 92,000 jobs lost nationwide in February

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, by the end of 2025, job vacancies in the U.S. finance and insurance industry will drop to 134,000, a 13-year low, down 75% from 2022. Analysts warn that more layoffs may occur, while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that employment unexpectedly decreased in February, but financial activities defied the trend by adding 10,000 net jobs, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy.

Trump says oil prices will quickly fall back, but Bitcoin and the stock market have already been hit

On March 9th, as the "Epic Rage Action" escalated, the global energy markets experienced intense volatility, with oil prices soaring to $116 at one point, raising concerns about supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump predicted that oil prices would fall back, but gasoline prices have already risen to $3.45. The stock and cryptocurrency markets declined sharply, and investors should pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events on the markets and future monetary policies.

The probability of a US recession soars to 40%, with rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical risks

As oil prices surpass $100 and the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, market concerns about a U.S. recession in 2026 are intensifying, with the estimated recession probability reaching 40%. Signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, with non-farm employment declining and the unemployment rate rising, putting economic pressure on the economy. Under the dual influence of energy and private credit markets, the uncertainty of the future economic outlook is increasing, and policy challenges are growing.

The risk of a US recession soars: predicted market probability rises to 40%, with soaring oil prices and worsening employment becoming key factors

Due to rising global energy prices and geopolitical tensions, concerns about the US economic outlook have intensified. Several forecasting platforms indicate that the probability of a recession in the United States by 2026 has increased to 36%-40%. Oil prices have surpassed $100, and coupled with a weak labor market and increasing financial pressures, these are the main factors driving the heightened recession expectations.