Geopolitics

Middle East tensions remain elevated, with investors focusing on the impact of high oil prices on inflation and the Fed's interest rate decision. U.S. stocks rose slightly, with energy stocks performing well, while Bitcoin consolidated around thousand dollars. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with attention on Powell's remarks.

TD Cowen points out that the legislative timeline for the U.S. crypto market structure bill may extend into the August recess, surpassing the original pre-Easter expectations. With primaries concluded, lawmakers will have greater flexibility for negotiations. If control of Congress changes following the 2026 midterm elections, the bill could be delayed until 2027. Currently, the bill is at an impasse due to disagreements between the banking industry and Democrats, but both sides are approaching compromise in negotiations.

Iran has pre-designated successors for key government officials and military commanders to ensure that state functions remain unaffected in case of emergencies. This measure aims to maintain administrative operations and defensive capabilities, with recent confirmation that officials were killed in airstrikes.

Gate News reported that on March 17, Iran's media confirmed that Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has been killed.

The SEC declared that most crypto assets are not securities, providing clarity on what defines an investment contract. This guidance aims to help market participants and supports ongoing legislative efforts.

The Iran conflict disrupts global commodity supply, notably urea fertilizer, with prices surging 34% to $601/ton as of March 16. Myriad's prediction market monitors urea's potential rise above $610 by March 25, reflecting broader energy market volatility.

Gate News reported that on March 17, U.S. President Trump stated that American military operations against Iran will "basically end within two or three days," and claimed that the U.S. could destroy Iran's power grid within one hour if needed. Trump also said the U.S. is looking for someone capable of governing Iran. Currently, the U.S. has not prepared to withdraw from Iran, but will "leave in the near future." He emphasized that the U.S. is capable of striking oil facilities at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export port. Additionally, Trump stated that action against Cuba will be taken soon.

Recent military activities near Taiwan have increased, with China reinforcing its presence through aircraft and naval maneuvers. In response, Taiwan is enhancing its defense capabilities while political tensions rise, affecting global markets, including cryptocurrencies.

The director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned in opposition to war with Iran, alleging that the war is being driven by Israeli pressure and misinformation, while emphasizing that Iran poses no imminent threat to the United States. His resignation has sparked shock in Washington political circles, and the Trump camp subsequently counterattacked his personal character.

Trump announces that most NATO allies are unwilling to participate in military operations against Iran, emphasizing that the United States no longer needs NATO's support or that of other countries, and claims to have severely damaged Iran's military capabilities, arguing that America as a strong power can handle the situation independently.

EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Kaja Kallas calls on the United States and Israel to end the war against Iran and emphasizes the importance of easing Middle East conflicts through diplomatic means. The EU is engaging with multiple regional countries to promote negotiations and offer peaceful solutions, while also suggesting to draw on the Black Sea Grain Initiative to ensure the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gate News report: On March 17, the Israeli military stated that Hezbollah is "intensifying preparations" and plans to launch a rocket attack against Israel within the coming hours.

Bank of America economists said that the Bank of Canada may maintain interest rates unchanged in 2026, but faces risk of rate hikes due to energy price volatility. The economist expects the central bank governor will focus on the uncertainty of Middle East conflicts on the economy and the impact of rising oil prices. Traders have begun to anticipate a possible rate hike by the end of 2026.

Gate News reported that on March 17, according to official sources, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino will attend and speak at a Trump luncheon held at Mar-a-Lago.

Gate News, on March 17, the White House economic advisor Hassett made statements regarding the Iran situation. Hassett stated that tankers have begun transiting through the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global oil shipping route), and the Iran conflict will end in the short term, with a resolution expected within weeks rather than dragging on for months. The U.S. government has developed contingency plans for each quarter's potential disruptions, including fertilizer supplies and fuel transportation to the West Coast. Hassett emphasized that President Trump will not back down before completing operations against Iran. Additionally, Hassett expressed concerns about Asia potentially reducing oil exports to the United States.

Gate News reported that on March 17, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that they have begun a large-scale air strike against Iran.

Donald Trump has taken a direct step to tackle rising financial crime by signing an executive order to create a federal anti-fraud task force. Announced on March 16, 2026, the initiative puts J. D. Vance in charge of leading the effort. The task force will coordinate federal agencies, investigate

Foreign exchange traders are heavily purchasing safe-haven instruments and hedging options due to concerns that the Middle East situation could trigger market shocks, with butterfly option demand showing significant increases. EUR/USD option demand reached an 11-month high in early March.

A Bank of America survey on March 17 shows that investor sentiment is pessimistic, affected by the Iran war and concerns about private credit, with the expected proportion of strong global economic growth plummeting to 7%. Despite the decline in sentiment indicators, it remains higher than the low point in April 2025.