Prediction Market

According to SolanaFloor’s April 23 report, the Solana-based decentralized trading aggregation platform Jupiter has officially launched the Jupiter Prediction Bot, bringing prediction market functionality to the Telegram platform so users can access prediction markets without leaving their messaging app.

Gate News message, April 23 — A high-performing trader (ID: Car, address: 0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b) with over $1.25 million in lifetime profits has accumulated approximately $34,000 in "No" positions on Polymarket's "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" prediction market,

A user made about $34,000 on Polymarket by tampering with a Paris CDG temperature sensor to inflate readings, affecting weather contracts settled with Météo France; two manipulation events on April 6 and 15; charges filed. A trader earned roughly $34,000 on Polymarket by artificially boosting a sensor near Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport to spike a day's high temperature, exploiting mispriced weather options. Polymarket's weather settlements relied on Météo France data; the incidents occurred on April 6 and April 15, and Météo France has pressed market-manipulation charges.

According to a Bloomberg report dated April 23, Polymarket—long a dominant force in predicting-market trading volume—has been facing multiple operational challenges. Dune Analytics data shows that Polymarket’s global trading volume has been surpassed by Kalshi; on valuation, after Kalshi announced a new round of funding last month, it reached $22 billion. The two prediction markets simultaneously announced plans to enter the perpetual futures market in April.

According to disclosures by the crypto community account @aaronjmars on April 23 on the X platform, and subsequent reporting by Le Monde and BFMTV, a man allegedly tampered with the automated weather sensors at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) with portable heating devices on April 6 and April 15, respectively, generating cumulative profits of about $34k from weather betting markets on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday, April 22, barring state officials and employees from using nonpublic information obtained through their positions to place bets in prediction markets, or from assisting any third party in engaging in the foregoing conduct. On the same day, prediction market platform Kalshi announced that it had completed an internal investigation into three political candidates who placed bets in their own campaign activities, and imposed fines and suspensions on them.

Jupiter launches Prediction Bot on Telegram with Clans, enabling team-based discussion and social competition for collaborative trading in the Telegram ecosystem.

According to a report by The New York Times on April 23, Kalshi, a prediction market platform, issued disciplinary actions to three political candidates who attempted to bet on their own election campaigns, and the relevant disciplinary action letters have been posted on Kalshi’s website. Bobby Deno, head of enforcement and legal counsel at Kalshi, said the sanctions are part of the platform’s “proactive engineering solution,” designed to identify trading activity that violates the platform’s recently updated rules.

Kalshi taps Pyth as data provider for Commodities Hub, launching binary-event markets on oil, lithium, soybeans, with dozens of live contracts; emphasizes 24/7 price discovery beyond traditional exchanges. Abstract: Kalshi has named Pyth, a crypto oracle, as the data provider for its newly launched Commodities Hub, enabling event-based contracts on major commodities. Dozens of markets cover price moves in Brent, lithium, soybeans, and more, with binary bets on rising or falling prices. The platform argues that 24/7 price discovery is increasingly essential as geopolitical events unfold outside traditional exchange hours.

Gate News message, April 22 — US stocks surged to record closes on April 22 as President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, while strong first-quarter corporate earnings bolstered investor sentiment. The S&P 500 gained 73.89 points (1.05%) to close at 7,137.9

Kalshi integrates Pyth as settlement data for its new commodity center, covering major metals and energies, enabling continuous trading and reliable settlement; Pyth Pro will expand data access and asset coverage. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market platform, has integrated Pyth as the settlement data source for its new commodity center, covering gold, silver, Brent crude oil, natural gas, copper, corn, soybeans, and wheat. Pyth Pro will provide direct market data access to Kalshi market makers to support continuous trading and reliable settlement of commodity-related event contracts. The collaboration also plans expansion to additional asset classes, including indices, equities, and foreign exchange.

Gate News message, April 22 — Gensyn, a decentralized AI infrastructure network backed by a16z crypto, launched its flagship product Delphi, an AI-settled information market platform that allows anyone to create markets and earn fees based on trading volume. Market creators pre-select fixed-weight

Gate News message, April 22 — ProCap Financial, backed by crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, has partnered with prediction market operator Kalshi to launch a professional research product tailored to predictive markets. ProCap will access Kalshi's data through a direct pipeline and employ AI age

Bitcoin (BTC) sees a short-term rebound, temporarily trading at around $76,230 as of April 22. A bipartisan PACE bill in the U.S. would seek to allow the Federal Reserve’s payment system to be connected, with support from the crypto industry. According to The Information, Kalshi is considering launching sustainable futures to expand its cryptocurrency business.

Polymarket announced on April 21 that it will launch sustainable contracts. The first batch of underlying assets will be Bitcoin, NVDA, and gold, with up to 10x leverage and 24/7 trading. It is now open to an early-user whitelist. After completing the CFTC DCM registration, it is able to offer long-position futures and perpetual contracts in the United States, with no expiration date. Around the same time, Kalshi announced a competing product, and market rumors suggest that the new round’s financing valuation is too high. Details such as fees, margin, and liquidation are pending publication ahead of the official launch.

Polymarket tracked a 46% win-rate account placing $850k on Spurs in NBA Playoff Game 2: $800k on Spurs win and $50k on Spurs spread, as Spurs lead 1-0 in the series. Abstract: Gate News reports that a Polymarket user with a 46% win rate placed $850,000 on the Spurs vs. Trail Blazers playoff game, including $800,000 on Spurs to win at 84.5 cents and $50,000 on Spurs spread at 50.8 cents. The Spurs held a 1-0 series lead as the game began, with listed lineups for both teams.

Gate News message, April 22 — The probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal on Polymarket before April 30 has dropped sharply to 18%, down 17% over the past 24 hours, according to monitoring by Odaily Seer. Total trading volume on this prediction market contract has exceeded $35 million. The co

Polymarket launched perpetual contracts for leveraged long and short trades on assets like gold, BTC, NVIDIA, and AAPL, with early access for registered users.