Monetary Policy

According to a Bloomberg survey, economists have pushed back the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts from March to June, with an expectation of two rate cuts before the end of the year. Concerns about Walsh as the pick for the new chair have increased, with the survey showing economists expect year-end rates to be between 3% and 3.25%.

Mitsubishi UFJ analysts point out that the oil price surge triggered by the Iran conflict may prompt some central banks to raise rates, but rate hikes amid weak economic conditions are unfavorable for currencies. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, with the Australian dollar becoming one of the best-performing G10 currencies.

The U.S. Senate passed the "21st Century Housing Act," which prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar, with restrictions lasting until 2031, reflecting concerns about financial surveillance and personal privacy. Despite opposition from the House of Representatives and political uncertainties, decentralized finance platforms like LiquidChain are seizing market opportunities to drive liquidity innovation.

Middle East conflict escalation drives oil price increases, raising U.S. short-term inflation expectations and affecting Federal Reserve rate-cut prospects. The one-year breakeven inflation rate reached 4.62%, while the two-year rate stands at 3.18%. High oil prices may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with the probability of no rate cuts in 2026 expected to rise to 44.7%.

Citi strategist Jamie Searle stated that uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has made short-term bond yields vulnerable. Central bank policy meetings expected next week are anticipated to exacerbate market volatility, with the ECB potentially considering a preemptive rate hike, while the Bank of England is likely to remain cautious.

Gate News report: On Friday, March 13, New York gold futures (NYMEX gold) fell below $5,100 per ounce, with the week poised to record a weekly decline. A stronger US dollar, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy are putting pressure on gold prices. Analysts from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group stated: "The US dollar strengthens due to its safe-haven status, particularly as rising oil prices benefit the United States as a net energy exporter. Market concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path are intensifying, and rising oil prices increase the likelihood of inflation pressures re-emerging."

The U.S. is about to release the January PCE price index, with core PCE expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2024 and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Due to different weighting allocations of items between CPI and PCE, their trends have diverged, and the "moderate" convention of PCE is also being challenged, which may impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future.

As the Federal Reserve is about to hold an FOMC meeting, liquidity in the U.S. private credit market is tight, with several funds restricting investor redemptions, potentially triggering a chain reaction and causing capital to flow out to more liquid assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market risks are increasing, and it is important to monitor the Fed's policy moves and shifts in capital flows.

The MOVE Index surged 21% on March 12, signaling that inflation concerns are spreading to global bond markets. Options data for Bitcoin and Ethereum show conservative market sentiment, with put ratios rising. Despite increased financial risks, implied volatility in crypto markets remains relatively stable, but if US Treasury volatility continues to rise, it could put pressure on crypto markets. Overall, the market currently maintains a cautious stance toward risk assets.

With market volatility intensifying, the demand for risk hedging in crypto derivatives is rising, and Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are approaching expiration. Data shows that market positions are skewed toward defensive strategies, particularly with elevated put-to-call ratios in Ethereum options. Despite increased uncertainty in traditional markets, implied volatility remains stable, though macro risks could impact the positioning structure of crypto assets.

Today, the cryptocurrency market faces important option expiration and PCE inflation data release, with cautious market sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire, with traders expecting Bitcoin to maintain high-level oscillation. Ethereum support is being watched at the $2,100 range. U.S. macroeconomic policy and energy market volatility are similarly affecting market sentiment.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce stated that the SEC will design a narrower innovation exemption framework for tokenized securities, prioritizing investor protection. The IAC opposed broad exemptions and advocated for a case-by-case reform approach, while acknowledging the potential benefits of tokenization, such as improving settlement efficiency and promoting transparency. SEC Chair Paul Atkins is expected to consider the exemption soon in order to systematically establish long-term regulatory standards.

Since late February, multiple private credit fund managers have restricted redemption requests, creating a liquidity crisis. Investors may turn to liquid assets like Bitcoin to raise funds. With the FOMC meeting approaching, this could further exacerbate fragility in the crypto market, while rising credit risk at Deutsche Bank has intensified market anxiety.

Federal Reserve officials revealed that regulators will propose final Basel III rules from March 17-21, with public comment opening three months later. Bitcoin is classified as a high-risk asset requiring high capital reserves, sparking criticism from the crypto industry.

CME Fed Watch data shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to have almost no rate cut opportunity in March, with a 99.1% probability of maintaining rates unchanged. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in April is only 3.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 19.5%.

Gate News reported that on March 13, Trump publicly stated this morning, urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately. He said, "Where is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell today? He should cut rates right now instead of waiting for the next meeting."

2026-03-12 15:15 to 2026-03-12 15:30 (UTC), BTC recorded a +k-line return of 0.79%, with price fluctuating between 69702.5 and 70428.9 USDT, reaching an amplitude of 1.04%. Trading activity was robust during this time window, with noticeably elevated market attention and intensified short-term volatility. The primary driver of this price movement was on-chain large fund flows and increased institutional participation. During the same period, multiple large transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC flowed into exchange cold wallets, with whale addresses concentrating their buying activities. [Text appears to be incomplete]

Gate News reports that as of March 12, market traders are no longer fully pricing in expectations for a single Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. Previously, the market widely anticipated the Federal Reserve would conduct one rate cut in 2026, but current trading pricing shows this expectation has shifted.

Gate News: On March 12, according to a Reuters survey, among 96 surveyed economists, 63 expect the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in the next quarter to a range of 3.25%-3.50%, higher than the expectation of 51 out of 101 economists in the February survey. Additionally, among 37 surveyed economists, 29 indicated that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain interest rates unchanged for a longer period than previously expected.

The ABA chair-elect warns that rising stablecoin use could harm U.S. banks by reducing deposits, impacting rural lending and community loans. Without regulation, banks may need to innovate to retain depositors and support local economies.