A day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world—this saying's deeper meaning goes far beyond market fluctuations; it speaks more about the torment of the mindset. I once watched a friend hold a position on SOL for two weeks before giving up, only to see it surge 120% afterward. Similar stories play out repeatedly with DOGE, ETH, and others. Too many people endure the test of a sharp decline, only to fall just before the crucial main upward wave. After years of navigating the crypto space, I increasingly understand one principle: the secret to making money isn't about how frequently you trade, but whether you can read the "rhythm" of the mid-term trend. Today, I want to share a few lessons learned with real money, hoping to help you avoid missing your own market opportunities next time. **Understanding Bitcoin's cycle is equivalent to mastering the key to altcoins' fate** There is a hard rule in the crypto world: Bitcoin sets the stage, altcoins perform the show. If you don't even understand where BTC currently stands, trading altcoins is basically just gambling. Based on observations, Bitcoin's big rallies typically go through four stages: main upward wave → high-level consolidation → downward correction → low-level consolidation. Most retail investors' losing scripts are caught in this cycle—always driven by FOMO at the end of the main upward wave, then selling in the midst of consolidation and decline. How to judge? I mainly watch for two signals: One is the breakthrough of key resistance levels. Once Bitcoin breaks through important resistance (like the previous $105,000), on-chain activity and stablecoin market cap indicators will collectively surge, which usually signals the start of the main upward wave. Conversely, if it falls below key support (like $102,000), with trading volume shrinking and market enthusiasm waning, the correction phase has basically begun. Mastering these two points can help you avoid the most common mistake—always catching the last wave.

The interesting thing about the recent market is not the sharp price swings, but the increasingly obvious feeling that "funds are quietly adjusting behind the scenes." On-chain data and asset flow trends point to the same signal: mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are being continuously accumulated by institutions. This is not the typical hype-driven speculation, but a "everyone is testing the waters" rhythm. You can feel it just by looking at ETF flow data—the net inflow of these leading tokens has reached a relatively high level since October 2025. In other words, large funds are quietly accumulating during periods of low market volatility, rather than rushing in only when the entire market is shouting for a rally. Especially notable is the inflow into XRP spot ETFs, which is completely different from retail investor sentiment. Many institutions prefer to deploy early when volatility is low and retail investors are still on the sidelines. History often shows that this "quiet accumulation" phase is usually the preparatory period before the market truly takes off. Another point worth noting is that institutions are not just buying a single asset, but are simultaneously deploying across multiple major chains like BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. From a past focus solely on Bitcoin to a more diversified allocation now, it indicates that large funds are becoming more mature in their approach and adopting a longer-term perspective. Market volatility will come sooner or later, but this round is different from the short-term emotional-driven moves of the past. It more resembles a sign of structural funds re-entering and risk assets warming up through diversification, rather than pure price speculation. When institutions stop focusing only on Bitcoin and start embracing multiple mainstream ecosystems simultaneously, it often signals that market expectations are shifting from "waiting for news" to "re-pricing." This signal may be more worth pondering than just looking at the price gains.