A celebration that should have been ignited by eye-catching financial reports and ideal data unexpectedly turned into a brutal sell-off. Overnight, the U.S. stock market staged the most shocking intraday reversal in months, catching investors off guard. On Thursday, boosted by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report and a "Goldilocks" non-farm payroll report, U.S. stocks opened significantly higher. The S&P 500 index surged 1.9% within the first hour of trading, but the optimistic sentiment did not last. The market changed direction abruptly, and the index ultimately closed down 1.5%, with a market value evaporation of over $2 trillion from the intraday high to low. Nvidia's stock price rose over 5% at one point before closing lower, while Bitcoin fell below $90,000, putting pressure on risk assets across the board. This is the largest intraday volatility since the turmoil in the U.S. stock market in April, with the VIX fear index rising above 26 at one point. This sudden plunge has left traders bewildered, with the market filled with various explanations, ranging from doubts about the prospects of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to concerns over private credit risks. However, in Goldman Sachs' view, a single catalyst is not enough to explain this dramatic reversal. Goldman Sachs partner John Flood bluntly stated in a report to clients, "The market is currently battered." He pointed out that investors have fully entered "profit and loss protection mode," overly focused on hedging against crowded market risks. He believes that NVIDIA's strong earnings report did not serve as a "risk appetite alarm" signal as traders had expected; rather, it prompted them to seek hedges to guard against further losses. Nine Major Causes of Disaster: A Comprehensive Review by Goldman Sachs Traders Goldman Sachs traders pointed out nine interrelated factors in a report that together constitute the backdrop for this sell-off, regarding why the market has sharply reversed. NVIDIA's "good news is all out": Despite exceeding expectations in its earnings report, NVIDIA's stock opened high but closed down 3%, failing to play the role of a "clear bullish signal" as the market hoped. Goldman Sachs top trader John Flood commented, "True good news not being rewarded is often a bad sign." Concerns about private credit: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook publicly warned of "potential asset valuation vulnerabilities" in the private credit sector and the risks that its complex connections with the financial system may bring, raising market vigilance. Overnight, the credit market deteriorated, and the spreads between investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds widened. The employment data failed to provide clarity: Although the September non-farm payroll report was overall robust, it did not offer a clear direction for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, with the probability of a rate cut only slightly rising to 35%. Cryptocurrency Crash: Bitcoin dips below the psychological barrier of $90,000, triggering a broader sell-off of risk assets. CTA Sell-off Accelerates: Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds were already in an extremely bullish position, and as the market broke through short-term technical thresholds, their selling began to accelerate. The market is closely monitoring the mid-term key level of 6456 points, where most of the selling pressure is concentrated. Shorts Re-entering the Market: As market momentum reverses, short positions are becoming active again. Poor performance in overseas markets: Key tech stocks in the Asian market, such as SK Hynix and SoftBank, have shown weak performance, failing to provide a positive external environment for U.S. stocks. Market liquidity exhaustion: market depth has significantly deteriorated. According to Goldman Sachs data, the liquidity size of the top buy and sell orders for the S&P 500 index has dropped to about $5 million, far below the average level of about $11 million for the year, making the market more susceptible to the impact of large trades. Macroeconomic trading dominates the market: The trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged to 41% of the total market trading volume, significantly higher than the annual average of 28%, indicating that market trading is more driven by macro factors rather than individual stock fundamentals. Technical Alert: Liquidity Drought and CTA Selling Pressure In addition to the nine factors mentioned above, Goldman Sachs' technical analysis checklist further reveals the fragile technical structure of the market, which is also a key reason for the amplification of the downtrend. First, there is the systematic selling pressure from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA). According to Goldman Sachs' model, regardless of how the market evolves in the coming week, CTA funds will be net sellers. Traders are closely watching the mid-term key level of 6457 points in the S&P 500 index; a breach below this level could trigger larger-scale programmatic selling. Secondly, there is a serious lack of liquidity. The top bid-ask liquidity of the S&P 500 index has fallen to around $6 million, which is below the 20th percentile of the past year. This "zero liquidity" state means that the market's ability to absorb sell orders is extremely poor, and even small-scale sell-offs can lead to significant price fluctuations. Finally, the surge in ETF trading volume has raised a red flag. When the market declines, the proportion of ETF trading volume rises to 40%, which typically indicates that passive and macro-driven funds are dominating the market, intensifying the overall downward momentum. Market sentiment is weak: a complete collapse from large tech stocks to cryptocurrencies. Thursday's market clearly demonstrated the extreme fragility of market sentiment, with the sell-off rapidly spreading from one asset class to another. Large tech stocks are the first to be affected. Thanks to Nvidia's earnings report, US tech giants - the "Mag7" - initially surged at the opening but began to sell off as the European market approached closing time, ultimately performing in sync with the broader market and staging a typical "rise first, then fall." At the same time, the "Meme stocks" and high-momentum stocks favored by retail investors faced significant setbacks, with related portfolios recording their worst single-day performance since the "Tariff Liberation Day Crash." All major U.S. stock indices are currently testing (or breaking below) the 100-day moving average after breaking through the 50-day moving average at the open. It is worth noting that the collapse of the cryptocurrency market seems to have occurred before the stock market. According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin was severely sold off after breaking below the psychological threshold of $90,000, with its decline preceding the sharp drop in U.S. stocks, suggesting that the transmission chain of risk sentiment may have begun in this high-risk area. The expiration of huge options is imminent, and the market is on high alert. The complexity of the market is further exacerbated by the upcoming massive options expiration. Goldman Sachs predicts that this Friday will see the largest November options expiration day in history, with an estimated $3.1 trillion in notional value of options expiring, including $1.7 trillion in SPX index options and $725 billion in individual stock options. Large options expirations often lead to market volatility and may produce a "gravitational" effect on the prices of the underlying assets. From the perspective of capital flow, the market's defensive mindset is also confirmed. According to data from Goldman Sachs trading platform, long-term funds (LOs) tend to sell throughout the day, while hedge funds (HFs) shifted from a net buying of 10% at the opening to a net selling by the close, indicating a rapid shift of smart money during the day. For investors, this dramatic intraday reversal serves as a stern reminder: in a market with a fragile technical structure and tense investor sentiment, mere positive fundamentals may not be sufficient to support a continuous rise in prices. In the coming days, the market will closely monitor the movements of CTAs, the impact of options expiration, and whether the liquidity situation will further deteriorate.

11.21 Morning Analysis of BTC by Little Financial Expert BTC is currently still in a downward trend, with the intraday rebound only being a short-term technical correction. The strong decline in the evening further solidified the dominant pattern. From the four-hour level, the price continues to operate along the lower Bollinger band, and the rebound process has always lacked effective volume support. The low-volume consolidation is actually accumulating momentum for the subsequent decline. Suggestion: If it rebounds to around 88500-89500, first look at 86000-85000. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌$GUSD ‌#逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #我对Gate广场的建议分享 #十二月降息预测 #GUSD双重收益

Looking back at yesterday's trend, the judgment of Rebound being empty was quite accurate, successfully achieving a profit margin of 6500 points. From the four-hour chart, although there has been some improvement after a series of bearish candles probing the bottom, the upward momentum is weak, resembling more of a technical correction during a downtrend. Since the downward channel has not been broken, the bearish momentum has not been fully released, and the strategy should continue to focus on the rebound high points to position short orders. Specific operational thought: Consider building short positions in batches within the range of 87800-88600, targeting the 86000-85000 level. Aggressive friends can enter in batches, while conservative ones should wait for confirmation signals before taking action.