中金：大宗商品Siêu chu kỳ的启动可能仍欠火候

The Golden Ten data on September 23rd stated that according to the CICC research report, in the visible future, we believe that the theme of the commodity market will still be the conversion of downstream new and old demand dynamics and the potential contradiction between upstream capacity investment and price disconnection. Although we judge from the fundamentals that the global commodity market may have completed the transition from majority surplus to majority shortage by 2024, the incremental demand from green and emerging economies is still undergoing quantitative changes and has not yet reached a qualitative turning point. Traditional stock demand still faces the drag of potential global economic slowdown. The realization of the expected increase in demand still relies on the shortage of the balance sheet becoming a reality, and if the relay of old and new dynamics drops the baton, the excessive speculation under the premature pricing shortage will also face adjustment risks. In summary, we believe that the start of the Super Cycle may still be lacking, and under the new paradigm of supply and demand, the pricing of the commodity market may still focus on the differentiation of supply and demand conditions.