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The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January 2026 unexpectedly surged by 130,000, far exceeding the forecast of 55,000-75,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, hitting a six-month low. Healthcare (+82,000), social assistance (+42,000), and construction (+33,000) contributed the most to the increase. Private sector hourly wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating stable consumer spending potential. Following the data release, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations were pushed back to July, the US dollar index jumped 50 points, and spot gold plummeted nearly

U.S. core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, hitting the lowest level since March 2021, and remained flat at 0.3% month-on-month, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures. The sharp decline in energy prices was the main driver, with gasoline prices down 3.2% month-on-month and fuel prices decreasing by 5.7%, which contributed to the narrowing of the overall CPI monthly increase to 0.2%. However, service prices remain resilient, with airline ticket prices soaring 6.5% month-on-month and healthcare costs rising 0.3%, partially offsetting the price declines in goods. Housing costs, th

In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, remaining flat month-on-month, mainly due to the high base effect from the Lunar New Year falling in a different month. Food prices declined by 0.7% year-on-year, and energy prices were significantly dragged down. The core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, reaching a new high in nearly six months, reflecting the resilience of service consumption and industrial product demand. The PPI narrowed its year-on-year decline to -1.4%, with four consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth, indicating an improvement in supply and demand in

The U.S. House of Representatives on February 11 local time narrowly passed a resolution with 219 votes in favor and 211 votes against, calling for the termination of punitive tariffs imposed by Trump on Canadian goods. In this vote, 6 Republican lawmakers rarely "crossed the aisle" to support the resolution, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party. The Trump administration imposed tariffs in 2025 citing "insufficient control of fentanyl," invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, while the House believed this move was an abuse of national emergency powers. Although

According to recent market trends, US technology funds are experiencing significant capital outflows. As of the week ending February 4, 2026, technology sector funds withdrew $2.34 billion in a single week, mainly due to growing market concerns over an AI bubble and accelerated hedge fund divestments. During the same period, hedge funds set a record for reducing their software stock holdings, with their total net position dropping to 2.6%, and the long-short ratio hitting a historic low. Additionally, December 2025 data shows that investors withdrew $1.6 billion from technology funds in a sing

U.S. January retail sales data significantly underperformed expectations, with only a 0.1% month-on-month increase, far below the market forecast of 0.8%. As a barometer of consumer sentiment, this data reflects weakening consumer spending power amid high inflation and rising interest rates. Sales of durable goods such as automobiles and furniture declined notably, and non-essential categories also showed signs of fatigue. Market concerns about slowing economic momentum led to a decline in U.S. stocks in early trading, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and traders are betting that the Federal Reserve

In February 2026, the US and Iran held a new round of indirect negotiations in Oman, but they had significant disagreements on core issues. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian clearly outlined a "red line," refusing to compromise on uranium enrichment and ballistic missile issues, emphasizing that the nuclear program is a matter of sovereign peaceful use. The United States continued to apply pressure, deploying carrier strike groups, shooting down Iranian drones, and increasing economic sanctions, threatening to impose additional tariffs on countries involved in trade with Iran. Despite

The crypto market is rebounding strongly! Bitcoin breaks through the $60,000 mark, with a 24-hour increase of over 12%; Ethereum follows closely with a gain of more than 10%, and mainstream coins are collectively warming up. The Fed's easing of rate hike expectations has boosted risk asset appetite, combined with some institutions buying the dip, leading to a significant improvement in market sentiment. Analysts point out that the short-term technical rebound has strong momentum from oversold conditions, but caution should be exercised regarding macro uncertainties. It is recommended to monito

If Woshuo were to lead the Federal Reserve, the policy framework might present a complex combination of "preemptive rate cuts and balance sheet reduction." Its core logic is: on one hand, responding to the White House's demand to lower financing costs by cutting interest rates, with 1-3 rate cuts possibly implemented by 2026; on the other hand, aggressively shrinking the balance sheet to hedge against the effects of liquidity easing. The contradictions of this policy mix are significant: balance sheet reduction could push up long-term interest rates, counteracting the rate cut objectives, and

U.S. January ADP employment increased by only 22,000, well below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest level since March 2024. Breakdown data shows manufacturing shed 8,000 jobs, professional/business services cut 57,000 jobs, while healthcare services became the main growth point. The cooling labor market has intensified market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early, with CME tools showing a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in June. As a result, international gold prices rebounded briefly, and the U.S. dollar index came under pressure. Due to a governm

On February 3, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a federal government funding bill, ending a partial government shutdown that began on January 31 due to a bipartisan budget impasse. The shutdown was caused by the Senate-passed appropriations bill on January 30 not being promptly approved by the House of Representatives, leading to a "technical shutdown" of nine departments including the Department of Defense and the Department of the Treasury, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who were forced to take leave. The new bill funds most departments through the end of the fisca

Former U.S. President Trump has repeatedly expressed strong support for cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that the United States needs to maintain its leading position in the global cryptocurrency sector. At the 2026 Davos Forum, he declared that new crypto legislation would open a "new path to financial freedom" and promote the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Since taking office in 2025, Trump signed the "Genius Act" to establish a stablecoin regulatory framework, signed an executive order to promote the construction of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and appointed several industry sup

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced increased volatility, with mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum rapidly retreating from their highs, with daily declines exceeding 5%. The main reason for this correction is the short-term profit-taking, combined with rising expectations of regulatory tightening in some countries. From a technical perspective, this is a normal adjustment after an upward move and does not change the long-term upward trend. Investors should view the fluctuations rationally, focus on the fundamentals of the projects, avoid chasing gains and selling at lows

Technical Support Level: If the price holds above the 72,000-74,000 USD range (recently concentrated chip area and miner cost line), a technical rebound may be triggered. If it effectively breaks below 70,000 USD, caution is needed for further downside risk.
Macro Policy: If the Federal Reserve's February rate decision (February 6) signals dovish stance, it may boost risk assets; additionally, clarity on the US "CLARITY Act" legislative progress could alleviate regulatory uncertainty.
Capital Flows: Continuous net inflows into spot ETFs (e.g., over 500 million USD in a single day) or increased

The US PPI data for December 2025 exceeded expectations, rising 0.5% month-on-month (previously 0.2%), and up 3% year-on-year; core PPI increased 0.7% month-on-month (previously 0%), and 3.3% year-on-year, both surpassing market expectations. Breakdown shows significant increases in service costs, with trade profit margins reaching a new high since mid-2024, primarily driven by wholesale profit margins for machinery and equipment; although overall commodity prices remained flat due to falling energy prices, core commodities (such as home appliances and construction machinery) continued to acce

Based on current market forecasts and the dynamics of the Trump administration, the most popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair is Rick Rieder, Chief Bond Investment Officer at BlackRock. As of January 24, 2026, his probability of being elected on the prediction platform Polymarket has surged to 54%, far surpassing former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (26%) and current Governor Christopher Waller (11%). Rieder has received positive feedback from the bond market for advocating to cut the federal funds rate from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%, supporting a pause in balance sheet reduction

The Federal Reserve announced on January 28, 2026, that the target range for the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. This is the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025, mainly due to persistent inflation (December CPI year-over-year 2.7%) and the labor market remaining unexpectedly strong (unemployment rate 4.4%). Although non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December, the economy continues to expand steadily, with GDP growth revised up to 4.4%. Voting against were Directors Milan and Waller, who advocated for a 25 ba

Will the correlation between gold and Bitcoin continue? It requires a comprehensive assessment based on their attributes and the market environment. In the long term, both are regarded as "inflation-hedging assets" and tend to move together during periods of macro liquidity easing and rising geopolitical risks (e.g., the 2024 Fed rate cut expectations driving Bitcoin and gold to break previous highs simultaneously). However, short-term divergence is significant: gold relies on central bank reserves and institutional credit, with low volatility (annualized about 15%), providing stronger defense

In January 2026, the confrontation between the US and Iran continued to escalate. The United States dispatched the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group into Middle Eastern waters, deploying F-15E fighters and missile defense systems to establish military deterrence against Iran. Iran responded by erecting large anti-American propaganda posters depicting US aircraft carriers being bombed, and warned that any attack would result in strikes against US military bases and Israel. Trump claimed to have assembled a fleet larger than Venezuela's, while also stating that diplomacy remains an