Fans

March non-farm payrolls rose by 178k, beating expectations by 60k, which is bearish for crypto, but the market did not fall. BTC is consolidating in the 65,000-70,000 range, waiting for a direction. Multiple factors—Middle East conflict, Powell’s departure, and low liquidity—have led to the market staying cautious. If 65,000 holds, there’s hope for a rebound; if it breaks below, expect a further stepwise decline.

On the first day of the month, BTC surged to $68,589, boosted by easing US-Iran tensions, while ETH held above the $2,000 level. The AI token sector soared 10% in a single day, becoming the biggest highlight. SUI faces $40 million in unlock selling pressure, and Solana is struggling to hold the $80 support level. April is packed with macro events—tariff implementation, the CLARITY Act, and Federal Reserve personnel changes—any of which could trigger a trend reversal. The fear index is in recovery, making it suitable for phased deployment rather than chasing highs.

Bitcoin breaks through $71,000, demonstrating a trend-strengthening signal. From a technical structure perspective, $71,000 represents the edge of a historically dense transaction zone at the high position. After the breakout, selling pressure above is limited; on-chain data shows long-term holders' positions are stable, with continuous net outflows from exchanges, indicating the market remains in the mid-to-late stage of a bull market continuation; at the macro level, expectations of a monetary policy shift are intensifying, and Bitcoin's dual properties as both a risk asset and safe-haven asset are being repriced. From an operational standpoint, there are three approaches: trend followers can enter on pullbacks to 68,000-70,000; swing traders should monitor derivative indicators such as funding rates and open interest to prevent overheating; long-term investors should consider dollar-cost averaging or adding positions on dips. Risk factors include leveraged accumulation, regulatory surprises, and sentiment reversals. At the high price zone, risk-reward becomes increasingly asymmetrical; focus should be on pace and risk management rather than simply chasing gains.