Citigroup Slashes Bitcoin and Ethereum 12-Month Price Targets, Citing Stalled U.S. Crypto Legislation Weighing on Upside Catalysts

Citigroup recently lowered its target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next 12 months, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are becoming more cautious about the medium-term outlook for the crypto market. In the report, the bank revised its Bitcoin target price down from $143,000 to $112,000, and Ethereum’s target price from $4,304 to $3,175. The main reason for this adjustment is that U.S. cryptocurrency legislation is progressing slower than expected, delaying regulatory catalysts that could have driven market revaluation.

Citigroup believes that the slowdown in the U.S. Congress’s efforts to advance the Crypto Market Structure Act is the primary reason for the downward revision. The report highlights that the progress of the Clarity Act in the Senate has been hindered by disagreements over stablecoin regulations, and the legislative window for actionable laws in 2026 is shrinking. For the market, this means that policies that could improve regulatory clarity, encourage institutional participation, and boost ETF demand are unlikely to materialize in the short term.

Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders stated in the report, “Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and capital flows, but the window for U.S. legislative opportunities is narrowing this year.”

In terms of magnitude, Citigroup’s outlook for both major crypto assets has become notably more cautious. The new Bitcoin target price is approximately 21.7% lower than previous estimates, and Ethereum’s is about 26.2% lower. This not only reflects a reduced expectation for regulatory tailwinds but also indicates that, amid macro uncertainties and policy delays, the market’s medium-term valuation models are being recalibrated.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Still Have Upside Potential, but the Baseline Scenario Has Weakened Despite the downward revisions, Citigroup has not turned completely bearish. Instead, compared to earlier more optimistic forecasts, the bank now believes that the upward trajectory of the crypto market over the next year will be more gradual.

More notably, Citigroup presents both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios: in a potential recession, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000, and Ethereum could drop to $1,198. Conversely, in a more optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach $165,000, and Ethereum could rise to $4,488. This suggests that Citigroup does not dismiss the long-term bullish trend but believes that medium-term performance will be more heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.

Ethereum Faces Greater Sensitivity Compared to Bitcoin, Citigroup appears more cautious about Ethereum. The bank believes Ethereum’s future performance will be especially affected by on-chain activity metrics, which influence its valuation recovery. ETH’s valuation depends not only on policy environments but also on actual network activity improvements. However, Citigroup also notes that trends like stablecoins and tokenization could continue to support interest in the Ethereum ecosystem in the future.

The report states, “Ethereum’s metrics for user activity are particularly sensitive, and while these indicators have recently been weak, the trends in stablecoins and tokenization could increase interest and usage.”

This also reflects the recent market perception that the two assets are diverging: Bitcoin is still largely viewed as benefiting from macro liquidity and policy expectations, while Ethereum’s value is more susceptible to on-chain activity, application adoption, and ecosystem growth.

From Citigroup’s adjustments, ETH still has upside potential, but compared to BTC, its recovery path clearly relies more on fundamentals.

Market May Remain Range-Bound Temporarily Citigroup notes that before further legislative clarity, Bitcoin may hover around $70,000. This means that although the market has not completely lost its bullish narrative, the lack of new policy catalysts could lead prices to digest uncertainty within a range rather than rapidly initiating a new rally.

The report also mentions that if the Democrats gain more seats in the November midterm elections, the likelihood of passing crypto legislation could further decline, as intra-party disagreements persist. Some proposals aim to restrict officials from profiting from crypto assets and to strengthen anti-money laundering regulations. This indicates that Citigroup’s downward revision is not only based on current legislative gridlock but also reflects a forward-looking assessment of political risks.

Wall Street Reassesses Regulatory Tailwinds The significant cut in Bitcoin and Ethereum target prices by Citigroup does not mean a wholesale bearish stance on the crypto market. Instead, it shows that Wall Street is re-evaluating how much and how quickly regulatory clarity can translate into price catalysts. The market initially hoped that U.S. legislative progress would lead to increased institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and valuation expansion. When this narrative is delayed, asset valuation models naturally need to be adjusted downward.