Bitcoin returns to $78,000! ETF attracts $561 million, institutional "bottom-fishing signal" reappears?

Bitcoin has experienced a rebound after a series of declines, with prices rising approximately 4% over the past 24 hours to re-establish above the $78,000 mark. Previously, the market was hit by a chain of liquidations triggered by large-scale sell-offs, leading to short-term bearish sentiment. However, the latest capital movements have injected new vitality into the market.

A key driver of this rebound is the US spot Bitcoin ETF. Data shows that related products saw a net inflow of about $561 million in a single day, ending previous capital outflows. Notably, Fidelity’s FBTC saw inflows of $153.35 million, and BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net inflow of $141.99 million. The return of institutional funds is seen as a recognition of the current price range and provides direct buying support for the spot market.

Meanwhile, corporate-level capital continues to increase its allocations. Although some Bitcoin treasury companies’ stock prices are under pressure, Michael Saylor’s Strategy has added approximately 75 million USD worth of 855 Bitcoin, demonstrating a commitment to long-term value. Such sustained buying behavior reinforces market expectations of a “bottoming out” by institutions.

Changes in the derivatives market are also noteworthy. Data indicates that total trading volume has decreased to $75.27 billion, while open interest has slightly risen to $51.47 billion, suggesting that leverage speculation is cooling down, and some funds are shifting toward more cautious positioning. CryptoQuant analysts point out that funding rates have been negative for several consecutive days, often indicating that the phase dominated by bears is nearing its end, but it could also enter a longer consolidation period.

However, disagreements remain. Peter Brandt believes that the decline is not yet fully over and does not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin retesting the $66,000 area. On the other hand, some analysts note that Bitcoin has yet to fill the key gap near $84,000, and short-term upside potential may still be limited.

In the context of high macroeconomic uncertainty, this rebound appears more like a corrective rally. Capital flows, institutional attitudes, and derivatives structure changes will be key factors in judging the next trend.