Foresight News reports that Wintermute stated that Bitcoin seems to be entering an upward trend after breaking out of the past 50-day narrow trading range. The market landscape has changed last week. For the first time since November, Bitcoin has broken out of the range based on real fund flows (rather than leveraged trading). ETF demand has returned, the inflation environment is favorable, and cryptocurrencies are beginning to catch up with the overall rally of risk assets. The sharp decline on Monday, though intense, is a healthy correction. Rapid deleveraging has occurred, and the market has not fallen into a vicious cycle, which is a positive signal. The current issue is whether the tariff dispute is merely “bluff” or will develop into substantive policy. The market leans toward the former; since the beginning of the year, US stocks and the dollar have continued to rise, and interest rates have not been re-priced.
In the short term, attention should be paid to Tuesday’s opening and Friday’s PCE data. If Bitcoin can hold above the low of around $90,000 this week and ETF inflows continue, the breakout trend may persist; if subsequent selling causes it to fall below $90,000, the range since November will once again become a resistance level. Currently, buying pressure seems to be genuine.
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