Golden Finance reports that Greeks.live macro analyst Adam posted on social media stating that at the recently concluded Federal Reserve meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut was expected, and the Fed announced it will restart the purchase of $40 billion worth of short-term US Treasury bills (T-bills). The dovish stance can effectively supplement the liquidity of the financial system and is undoubtedly a clear positive for the market.
However, it is premature to restart QE and expect a bull market now. Christmas and year-end settlements are approaching, and in previous years, this period has always been the worst for liquidity in the crypto market, with low market activity and limited momentum to restart a bull market.
Looking at cryptocurrency options data, currently, over 50% of options positions are accumulated by the end of December. The biggest pain points for BTC are at the $100,000 round number, and for ETH at $3,200. The implied volatility (IV) of main expiry dates has been decreasing throughout the month, indicating that the market’s expectation of volatility this month is gradually diminishing.
It is worth noting that Skew has shown a persistent negative bias this month, with Put prices significantly higher than Call options at the same Delta. This is mainly due to two reasons: first, the market is stable, and covered call strategies are once again mainstream, artificially suppressing Call prices; second, the recent crypto market has been weak, with many traders using put options as a hedge against declines.
Overall, the crypto market is currently quite weak, with poor liquidity at year-end and low market sentiment. The most mainstream options market view is a slow decline, but there is also a need to watch out for potential reversals caused by sudden positive market news (although the probability is relatively low).
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
A huge Ethereum whale moves 2,000 ETH, seemingly preparing to sell
On April 17, an on-chain analyst, Ai Auntie, disclosed on the X platform that a long-term whale who has held a large amount of tokens since the Ethereum ICO period transferred 2,000 ETH (about $4.63 million) to a multi-signature address. The receiving address has been identified as a “designated sell” address in its history—funds are typically deposited to an exchange shortly after the transfer.
MarketWhisper48m ago
Trump Announces Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire as Bitcoin Reclaims $75,000
April 17, Bitcoin returned to around $75,000 as U.S. President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, boosting market sentiment. However, a CryptoQuant report shows that the proportion of large deposits has surged to over 40%, suggesting institutions may be preparing to sell. In addition, Bitcoin faces key technical resistance in the $76,000 to $76,800 range, and the market remains cautious about how events will unfold next.
MarketWhisper2h ago
Optimism boosted by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement helps Bitcoin hold steady at 75K
Israel and Lebanon reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement, U.S. stock index benchmarks hit new highs, and market sentiment is optimistic. Bitcoin is hovering around 75K; with capital flowing in, the rally is gradually gaining momentum. Keep an eye on the 78K resistance level.
ChainNewsAbmedia3h ago
Bitcoin Hovers Near $75K as Whales Accumulate 270K BTC Over 30 Days, Largest Since 2013
Bitcoin nears $75,000, driven by significant whale accumulation of 270,000 BTC and low exchange reserves. Despite fluctuations and negative funding rates, it rebounded after geopolitical news, with futures inflows increasing since March.
GateNews6h ago
XRP Trading Volume Surges to $1.81B in Single Session, Holds Above $1.43
XRP trading volume reached $1.81 billion, driven by futures at $1.47 billion and spot trading at $341 million. Currently priced at $1.43, XRP is above the 200-day EMA, signaling bullish momentum and increased market participation.
GateNews9h ago
