Research

On March 23, the crypto market returned to a choppy and slightly bearish structure, with both BTC and ETH pulling back. Major assets continue to dominate overall direction, while opportunities in altcoins remain concentrated in localized rotation. Among top gainers, SIREN (+169.56%), BR (+59.80%), and BANANAS31 (+48.29%) ranked as the top three performers among assets with a market capitalization exceeding $10 million. At the industry level, three key themes are emerging as the most notable: shared infrastructure for digital gold, institutional-grade capital market connectivity, and stablecoin treasury platforms. The broader narrative continues to evolve toward standardization, interoperability, and infrastructure development.

Gate Research Weekly Report: BTC remained in weak consolidation over the past day, facing resistance near $71,000, while ETH pulled back to the $2,200 level after its recent rally, showing slower short-term momentum. Altcoins remained mixed, and market sentiment stayed in the “Fear” zone. Stablecoin market capitalization held at $311.68 billion, while Ethereum gas fees remained at ultra-low levels. ETN, ENJ, and SIREN posted gains of 19%–33%. Meanwhile, Prediction Markets TVL rose to $479.66 million, and total RWA on-chain market capitalization reached $22.817 billion, showing that capital continues to focus on sectors with clearer real-world demand. In the coming seven days, ZRO, RIVER, and H will unlock approximately $54.50M, $29.17M, and $10.85M worth of tokens respectively, which may create short-term supply pressure.

Over the past 24 hours, BTC rebounded to around $74,672.2 before pulling back and repeatedly testing support near $71,000. ETH rose to around $2,350 but then weakened, dropping to $2,150 and entering consolidation. ETN, ENJ, and SIREN surged 33%, 25%, and 19% respectively, driven by expectations around EVM compatibility, gaming/metaverse momentum, and options demand, with trading volumes expanding in tandem. The Bank of Japan held rates steady as expected, signaling a “gradual” approach to tightening based on economic and inflation conditions. Polymarket will launch a “Situation Room” bar in Washington, D.C. focused on real-time event monitoring. Meanwhile, Nasdaq has received approval from SEC to enable trading of tokenized securities.

Gate Research Daily Report: On March 20, BTC held above $70,000 after a pullback, ETH stabilized near $2,100, and GT rebounded to $6.86 from recent lows. The broader market remained in a structural correction, while AIA led gains with a 33.07% surge. Meanwhile, the crypto market structure bill continued to advance, BTC showed relative resilience amid macro volatility, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the latest crypto legal interpretation is only the beginning.

Gate Research Daily Report: On March 20, BTC held above $70,000 after a pullback, ETH stabilized near $2,100, and GT rebounded to $6.86 from recent lows. The broader market remained in a structural correction, while AIA led gains with a 33.07% surge. Meanwhile, the crypto market structure bill continued to advance, BTC showed relative resilience amid macro volatility, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the latest crypto legal interpretation is only the beginning.

Gate Research: Over the past two weeks, the crypto market has transitioned from a post-deleveraging compression phase into a low-crowding recovery phase. BTC posted a range gain of approximately 2.2%, while ETH rose about 9.5%; measured from local lows to highs, their recovery magnitudes reached roughly 15.8% and 24.9%, respectively. This report analyzes recent market dynamics in BTC and ETH by examining price volatility, account long/short ratios, open interest, ETF net inflows, funding rates, and liquidation structures. It also reviews live trading signals, parameter sensitivity, and strategy performance over the past two weeks using a 4-hour dense moving average breakout strategy, highlighting that the market has gradually shifted from a defensive recovery phase to a trend-following trading environment.

Over the past week, BTC's trend has shifted from a consolidation phase to a bearish-dominated structure. ETH has underperformed BTC, forming a pattern of accelerated downside followed by sideways consolidation at lower levels. This indicates cautious bottom-fishing capital, with limited appetite for chasing rallies. STABLE has gained approximately 32.56% over the past seven days, making it the standout performer.

This report examines the expansion path of prediction markets from crypto-native origins to mainstream distribution, using the compliant platform Kalshi and its brokerage distribution model as a case study. It highlights that regulatory licensing and distribution access are becoming the core variables determining scale: once event options are embedded into brokerage account systems, trading barriers are significantly reduced, and platform growth becomes closely tied to channel efficiency.

Gate Research: On Feb 2, crypto markets pulled back amid a broad sell-off in stocks and gold/silver, as risk appetite continued to deteriorate. BTC traced a “sharp drop → capitulation wick → weak rebound → low-range consolidation” pattern; ETH underperformed sharply with $2,200 as the key near-term line; and GT entered a relief-rebound phase but remains capped by its MA30. In pockets of strength, POKT surged on deflationary tokenomics upgrades and partnership catalysts, Limitless (LMTS)rallied on buybacks/burns and a volume milestone, and AVAAI (AVA) gained on AI-agent narrative and ecosystem expectations. On the news front, prediction markets posted a record $12B+ in January volume; Moltbook sparked an AI-agents social wave that spilled into Clanker on Base via booming token launches and trading activity. Meanwhile, the meme sector slid further, with meme KOL Murad reportedly down about $58M over the past six months, reigniting risk discussions.On Feb 2, crypto markets pulled back amid a broad sell-off in st

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 30, the crypto market came under broad pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $82,000 and briefly dipping to around $81,000, while Ether retreated to the $2,700 level and remained technically weak. GT declined in tandem but showed relatively resilient downside, consolidating around the $9.20–$9.30 support zone. Despite weakness in major assets, selective capital rotation persisted, with small-cap tokens such as SENT and GWEI posting strong gains driven by AI and Ethereum infrastructure narratives. Meanwhile, a tech-led selloff fueled a cross-market risk-off move, alongside notable industry developments including Bit Digital’s exit from Bitcoin mining and the revival of The DAO with a $220 million Ethereum security fund.

On January 28, the crypto market saw a brief relief rebound, with broad-based gains and capital rotating back into core assets and large-cap majors. On the thematic side, mid- and small-cap tokens such as PIPPIN, BNKR, and XRD rallied strongly on agent narratives and expectations around product/tooling updates, with flows clearly concentrating into higher-beta names. Meanwhile, Tether launched its USAT dollar stablecoin as part of a two-track approach combining regulatory segmentation and distribution expansion; Kite released a mainnet roadmap centered on agent-native trust and pay-per-call payments; and Polygon continued to lead x402 agentic payment transactions, while Base activity has weakened for eight consecutive days.

Last week, BTC showed a weak consolidation pattern after a failed rebound on the 4-hour chart. The market saw a volume-driven decline followed by a low-volume rebound, indicating that the current bounce is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. ETH's price action mirrors BTC's, but it is noticeably weaker. The structure remains a weak rebound within a bearish trend. On-chain capital flows are showing clear signs of defensive rebalancing. Ethereum net inflows have approached $350 million. Hyperliquid and StarkNet saw net outflows of over $200 million and $167 million, respectively. In the prediction market, industry competition is being reshaped by a "points + zero-fee" strategy.

On January 26, major crypto assets came under broad pressure as market risk appetite continued to contract. After an emotion-driven sell-off, BTC found support around $86,000 but remains below its medium-term moving averages, while ETH broke below its previous consolidation range, with volatility expanding noticeably. The Fear & Greed Index fell to 20, indicating the market is in an extreme fear zone. Meanwhile, mid- and small-cap tokens such as TAIKO, AUCTION, and BOB moved higher against the trend, driven by factors including technical upgrades, capital rotation, and supply constraints, highlighting localized sector rotation. On the narrative front, the SocialFi thesis is rapidly unwinding, with social tokens broadly down more than 90%; BTC payments are seeing accelerated offline adoption in Las Vegas; and while on-chain stablecoin settlement volumes continue to grow, their share of real-world payments remains relatively small.

Gate Research Daily Report: On January 23, BTC rebounded after a sharp sell-off that previously pushed it down to around $87,000, and is now consolidating within the $89,300–$89,900 range; ETH staged a technical rebound after falling to around $2,866, but retreated after facing resistance near $3,000 and is now moving sideways between $2,930–$2,980; GT, after rebounding from lower levels, is capped by resistance near $10.10 and continues to trade in a weak consolidation pattern; XRD led small-cap tokens with a surge of +60.19%. Meanwhile, South Korean authorities reported that BTC under custody may have been stolen in a phishing attack, involving around $47 million; Citi warned that the recent surge in Ethereum on-chain activity is likely driven mainly by “address poisoning” scams; and World Liberty Financial’s partnership with Spacecoin to launch the USD1 satellite DeFi project has drawn market attention.

Gate Research: BTC and ETH are consolidating at lower levels after the pullback, with downside technical pressure easing in the short term, though a clear trend reversal has yet to be confirmed. Risk appetite remains cautious: on-chain data shows whales continuing to accumulate, while sentiment indicators stay in the extreme fear zone—suggesting improving positioning but incomplete confidence recovery. Meanwhile, Ondo is bringing tokenized stocks and ETFs to Solana, further expanding RWA and on-chain securities use cases and strengthening blockchains’ capacity to host traditional financial assets. In parallel, Solayer has launched a USD 35 million ecosystem fund focused on high-performance on-chain applications, supporting both infrastructure and application layers.