Kaspa Price Warning: Why Investors Could Lose Big Before 2026

A recent analysis from the popular YouTube channel Crypto Mindset has sparked heated debate in the crypto community. According to the analyst, holding Kaspa (KAS) until 2026 could be a costly mistake, as multiple technical indicators suggest the coin may be entering a prolonged bearish phase. Comparing Kaspa’s rise and potential fall to Bitcoin’s 2014 cycle, the analyst warns of a possible 90–99% correction before a true recovery phase begins.

Kaspa’s Bearish Signal: The RSI Breakdown

Crypto Mindset’s latest video dives into a crucial warning sign — the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The host pointed out that Kaspa’s weekly RSI fell below 50 in December 2024, marking what he considers the start of a long-term bearish reversal.

Historically, Kaspa’s price performs well when the RSI stays above 52, indicating strong bullish momentum. But once it slips below, the trend tends to shift to lower highs and lower lows. Combined with a drop below the 50-week moving average, this forms what the analyst calls a “clear sell signal.”

Since then, Kaspa’s price has reportedly dropped by more than 90%, suggesting the beginning of a deeper correction that could last well into 2026.

Comparing Kaspa’s Cycle to Bitcoin’s 2014 Crash

To provide context, the analyst compared Kaspa’s current trajectory to Bitcoin’s 2014–2015 bear market. At that time, Bitcoin had surged over 500x before entering a devastating two-year decline that erased nearly all short-term speculative gains.

Kaspa’s rally was even more extreme, skyrocketing roughly 1,000x from its early days. Such parabolic growth, the analyst warned, typically leads to an extended cooling-off period.

If history repeats itself, Kaspa could drop as low as $0.001 or even lower — representing a 99% retracement from its peak. While dramatic, this kind of correction is not uncommon in the crypto market, especially after massive retail-driven rallies.

What Could Happen to Kaspa Between Now and 2026

Crypto Mindset expects Kaspa to remain under bearish pressure for at least the next year. Since the RSI breakdown occurred in late 2024, the analyst predicts the weakness could persist through 2025, with little evidence of reversal.

He noted the ongoing pattern of lower highs and lower lows on both weekly and monthly charts. As long as that structure remains intact, the probability of further downside remains high.

The video also warned that a potential Bitcoin correction could make matters worse. Historically, when Bitcoin enters a bear phase, altcoins like Kaspa often suffer even larger declines. If Bitcoin tops out soon, Kaspa’s price could “get completely cooked,” according to the analyst.

When Kaspa Might Recover

Despite his bearish stance, the analyst doesn’t see Kaspa as a “bad project” — just a mistimed investment at the current stage.

He referenced Bitcoin’s 2015–2016 accumulation phase as a potential roadmap: after crashing, BTC consolidated for nearly two years before launching a new bull run. Kaspa, he believes, may follow a similar path, likely finding a bottom in mid-to-late 2026.

At that point, investors should watch for sideways consolidation, breakout patterns, and volume spikes — the key signals of a new accumulation phase. Until then, holding Kaspa could “trap” investors during the market’s most painful period.

Kaspa (KAS) Project Overview

Kaspa is a high-performance Layer-1 blockchain using the GHOSTDAG protocol, designed to allow parallel block creation — making it one of the fastest proof-of-work networks in existence. Unlike Bitcoin’s linear block structure, Kaspa’s DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) technology allows simultaneous block confirmations, significantly improving scalability and transaction throughput.

• Launch Year: 2021
• Consensus Mechanism: Proof-of-Work (PoW)
• Unique Feature: GHOSTDAG protocol enables multiple blocks per second
• Use Cases: Payments, dApps, decentralized settlements
• Token Supply: Fully emission-capped model with deflationary tendencies

Kaspa’s strong fundamentals and innovative architecture have made it a popular choice among miners and long-term believers — but the short-term market cycle, as Crypto Mindset warns, could pose serious risks for holders.

Kaspa Price Prediction: Bearish Before the Bounce

According to the analyst, Kaspa may remain bearish for an extended period. Late 2024 saw the weekly RSI fall below 50, signaling the start of a downtrend. Through 2025, the coin could continue losing value, potentially reaching as low as $0.001 to $0.008.

The analyst believes that a true recovery is unlikely until mid-to-late 2026, when Kaspa may enter a sideways consolidation phase, similar to Bitcoin’s 2015–2016 accumulation. At that stage, investors could watch for breakout patterns and volume spikes as early signs of a new bull phase. After this bottoming period, Kaspa could gradually recover, potentially climbing toward $0.01 to $0.05 in a longer-term bullish cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. Why is Kaspa’s RSI drop below 50 such a big deal? Because the RSI below 50 on weekly charts often signals a shift from bullish to bearish momentum, especially when paired with declining volume and moving average breakdowns.
2. Could Kaspa recover faster than the analyst predicts? It’s possible, but unlikely without strong Bitcoin performance or major network upgrades that reignite investor confidence.
3. Is Kaspa’s technology still promising despite price declines? Absolutely. Kaspa’s DAG-based PoW design remains one of the most scalable and efficient in the blockchain sector. The issue is not fundamentals but market cycle timing.
4. Should investors sell now or hold through the dip? The analyst suggests risk management: avoid holding through extended downtrends, and consider re-entering when accumulation signs appear — likely in 2026.
5. What could trigger Kaspa’s next bull run? A combination of Bitcoin recovery, stronger institutional adoption, improved miner economics, and renewed retail hype could all serve as catalysts.

Conclusion

Kaspa (KAS) remains a technically impressive project, but even great technology can’t escape market cycles. As Crypto Mindset warns, the current technical landscape suggests a long and painful correction before the next opportunity arises.

Holding Kaspa until 2026 could expose investors to heavy losses — but for those patient enough to wait for its eventual rebound, the next bull cycle could bring substantial rewards.

In crypto, timing isn’t everything — it’s the only thing.