Scan to Download Gate App

More Download Options

Don't remind me again today

Gate Research Institute: Starknet strengthens its narrative by leveraging BTCFi, Polymarket leads a new chapter in on-chain prediction markets | October 2025 Web3 on-chain data interpretation

GateResearch

2025-11-07 04:20:01

https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/0230c03e3ebc502a35ecd9ff94cf754100323293.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/89ed98b224c0ecc2fc27517d43f6cea55e0a2fd2.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/23c5ffef3e11c87f02aa41f5b4374a0270c01b32.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/850eead67bd5dc0f075c64860693a0cd7a4c0974.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/6a77f45f5684a064f0b2c93dd4dbe7e5f4cc4b38.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/a70894f6e925f7be18b0e1a944650013c97c0b63.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/d2e468948499112bbde61174ae86561742560b28.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/a4a156a56645ede8fb494f4b5afe1ad9f1ee8935.pnghttps://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/2c3125b6ee63572db0ad9840318d52e0e5d88570.png

Summary

Layer2 and high-performance public chain trading activity has fully rebounded, with the momentum of funds and user interactions continuing to strengthen, and the market structure tending towards stratification. Solana and Arbitrum lead the multi-chain ecosystem, Ethereum firmly occupies the value center, while Polygon and Base steadily expand to consolidate ecological resilience.
Arbitrum recorded significant net inflows with the help of DRIP incentives and asset tokenization deployment, further solidifying its position as the leader in Layer 2; Starknet has become a new focus driven by the BTCFi narrative, attracting substantial capital backflow.
There is a dense supply above BTC, and it will take time to digest the high-level chips for the price to break through; meanwhile, the short-term holding sentiment is stabilizing, and market confidence is still in the recovery stage; long-term holders have begun to accumulate chips again, and the market is entering a stage of capital rebalancing.
Polymarket is centered on the integration of prediction markets with mainstream finance, leading a new cycle of on-chain narrative with its “Up/Down Equity Markets” product. It has over 440,000 active users and a monthly trading volume exceeding $2.7 billion, making it a representative platform for the financialization of events.
Humanity Protocol focuses on zero-knowledge identity verification and the “AI+DID” narrative, $H has recently risen over 300%, driven by core module testing and community enthusiasm, making it the most关注新兴项目 in the decentralized identity track.

On-chain Data Summary

Overview of On-chain Activities and Fund Flows

In addition to analyzing the overall on-chain fund flow, we further selected several key on-chain activity indicators to assess the real usage popularity and activity of various blockchain ecosystems. These indicators include daily transaction volume, daily Gas fees, daily active addresses, and the net flow of cross-chain bridging, covering multiple dimensions such as user behavior, network usage intensity, and asset liquidity. Compared to merely observing the inflow and outflow of funds, these on-chain native data can more comprehensively reflect the fundamental changes in public chain ecosystems, helping to determine whether the capital flow is accompanied by actual usage demand and user growth, thus identifying networks with sustainable development potential.

Trading Volume Analysis: Arbitrum Leads Multi-Chain Recovery, Mainstream Public Chain Trading Activity Significantly Increases

According to Artemis data, the overall number of on-chain transactions in October showed a moderate growth trend, indicating that fund liquidity and on-chain activities remain robust. Solana continues to hold the top position, with a monthly transaction volume of 2.5 billion, an increase of 6.65%, maintaining its high-frequency interaction characteristics and leading among high-performance public chains.

Among them, Arbitrum performed the best, with the number of transactions increasing by over 34% month-on-month, maintaining a dual growth trend in both capital and activity for several consecutive weeks. Funds are accelerating their concentration from traditional main chains and some emerging Layer 2s towards leading ecosystems, with Arbitrum's ecosystem seeing record highs in both capital inflow and transaction volume. According to Dune data, its on-chain transaction volume surpassed $2 billion for the first time in October, significantly boosted by the expansion of DeFi protocols, asset tokenization, and L3 applications, leading to a notable increase in ecosystem activity. Robinhood's tokenization deployment on Arbitrum continues to advance, having tokenized nearly 500 assets in total, with a total value exceeding $8.5 million. Meanwhile, the liquidity protocol for stablecoins, DRIP, has seen its fund scale soar to $1 billion, indicating that a positive feedback loop between capital and applications is forming.

Polygon PoS also maintained strong growth, increasing by 22.45% month-on-month, with ecosystem trading activities returning to high levels. Solana grew by 6.65%, with high-frequency trading and on-chain applications continuing to thrive, maintaining strong user interaction activity. Ethereum and Base saw slight increases of 3.92% and 1.78% respectively, with the mainnet and its ecosystem remaining stable; Bitcoin's increase was only 0.66%, indicating that capital activity is primarily focused on holding positions and derivatives trading, with limited demand for on-chain transfers.

Overall, the on-chain transaction structure presents a pattern of “Layer 2 and high-performance public chains being active, while the main chain remains stable,” with capital interactions becoming more layered and efficient. This indicates that although the market heat has not significantly increased, the on-chain ecosystem still maintains a steady upward momentum.

Active Address Analysis: Solana leads in activity, Arbitrum experiences a low-level pullback.

According to Artemis data, during October 2025, Solana consistently ranked first with an average of about 2.5 million to 4 million active addresses per day, maintaining a high-frequency interaction characteristic, demonstrating its significant advantage among high-performance public chains. Although the activity level showed slight fluctuations, it remained overall stable and high, reflecting the resilience of ecological applications and user stickiness.

The number of active addresses on Base remains stable in the range of 700,000 to 1 million, ranking second, demonstrating steady performance with a mild upward trend, and the momentum of ecological growth continues. The daily active addresses on the Ethereum mainnet are maintained between 500,000 and 600,000, with limited fluctuations, indicating that the mainnet's activity remains stable; Polygon PoS and Bitcoin are maintained in the range of 400,000 to 600,000, with overall stable performance. Notably, Arbitrum has seen a slight decline, falling from the high point of about 450,000 at the beginning of the month to around 200,000, reflecting a phase of cooling in funding and interaction activities, with some users possibly flowing to chains such as Base and Polygon.

Overall, Solana still dominates high-frequency interaction scenarios, while Base and Arbitrum steadily expand their ecosystem user base. The Ethereum mainnet maintains its role of value carrying and stable operation, and the multi-chain ecosystem structure is becoming increasingly layered and clear.

On-chain fee revenue analysis: Ethereum ranks first, with significant fluctuations in Polygon PoS and Arbitrum.

According to Artemis data, during October, the fee income of mainstream public chains continued to show a differentiated pattern, overall presenting a structure of “high-value chains leading, high-frequency chains steady.” Ethereum still firmly holds the top spot in income, with multiple occurrences of peak phases, including a single-day income that once broke 10 million dollars in the middle of the month, mainly driven by DeFi and high-value transactions, consolidating its dominant position in the on-chain economy. Solana's fee income remains stable in the range of 500,000 to 1 million dollars, indicating that high-frequency trading continues to provide ongoing support for the ecosystem.

In contrast, Arbitrum's revenue fluctuates significantly, rising briefly in the middle of the month before quickly falling back, reflecting the impact of incentive activities or short-term capital games. Polygon PoS's revenue generally remains low, but shows a mild recovery at the end of the month, possibly related to ecosystem upgrades and on-chain application updates. Base and Bitcoin revenue are relatively stable, with the former mainly constrained by the pace of ecosystem expansion, while the latter reflects a balance between transfer and on-chain settlement demand.

It is worth noting that the collective surge in transaction fee income around October 11 is closely related to the market's intense fluctuations on that day. The short-term drop in the overall price of the crypto market triggered a concentrated outbreak of DeFi liquidations, DEX trading, and cross-chain exchange activities, leading to a temporary spike in on-chain transaction volume and gas fees. On that day, Ethereum and Arbitrum recorded significant peaks in transaction fees, reflecting the concentrated interaction behavior in the market during periods of high volatility. Overall, the spikes in transaction fee income are a phase-driven phenomenon influenced by market conditions, rather than a long-term structural growth, indicating that the on-chain economy remains highly sensitive to market fluctuations.

Public chain capital flow differentiation: Arbitrum continues to lead, Starknet and BTCFi narratives rise.

According to Artemis data, the on-chain capital flow has shown a significant divergence in the past month, with Arbitrum leading the chart with over $1 billion in net inflow, successfully reversing the previous trend of capital outflow and consolidating its position as the leader in Layer 2. The main reason for the inflow of funds comes from the continued fermentation of the DeFi Renaissance incentive program, which has allocated 24 million ARB to lending and leverage protocols to promote capital circulation and ecological growth, leading to a comprehensive improvement in TVL and DEX liquidity.

At the same time, Starknet has become another focus of the recent capital inflow, rising with the narrative of “BTCFi (Bitcoin Financialization)” and recording significant net inflow in a single month. On the ecological level, Starknet is collaborating with Alpen to build a native BTC cross-chain bridge, aiming to achieve “unwrapped, verifiable” BTC-DeFi interoperability; the staking scale of STRK has exceeded 600 million tokens, accounting for about 14% of the circulating supply, indicating an increase in long-term confidence; moreover, its DeFi protocol Extended has surpassed 60 million USD in TVL within two months of launching, with total locked stablecoins exceeding 100 million USD, and on-chain activity continues to reach new highs. The official launch of a 100 million STRK incentive program focuses on BTC staking, cross-chain collaboration, and institutional expansion, reinforcing the strategic layout of “Bitcoin yield and lending center,” making it the most notable Layer 2 ecosystem after Arbitrum.

In contrast, major chains like Hyperliquid, Polygon PoS, Unichain, Base, and Ethereum mainnet have all experienced significant net outflows, with Hyperliquid's monthly outflow approaching 1 billion USD, the highest in the entire network. This phenomenon reflects that market funds are flowing from overvalued main chains and trading-oriented ecosystems to high-growth Layer 2 solutions and innovative public chains.

Overall, the public chain funding is entering a structural rotation phase, with Arbitrum and Starknet leading the Layer 2 sector. The former reshapes the liquidity landscape through incentive mechanisms, while the latter initiates a new narrative cycle with its BTCFi strategy; meanwhile, the Ethereum ecosystem and some older main chains are facing liquidity withdrawal pressures. Future funding direction will depend on the speed of ecological innovation and the continuity of incentive policies, with projects that have real user growth and narrative extensibility continuing to dominate funding.

Bitcoin Key Indicator Analysis

After BTC reached a new high of 126,000 USDT in October, it entered a period of fluctuating decline, continuously dropping to around 105,000 USD. It has repeatedly faced pressure at the MA30 resistance level, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Technically, the short-term moving averages have turned down again and formed a death cross, with the MACD breaking below the zero line and the momentum bars turning negative, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. Trading volume has not increased during the rebound phase, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. Overall, BTC is in a phase of technical correction, with key short-term support at 105,000 USD. If it breaks below this level, it may drop to the 102,000 USD range; however, if it stabilizes and is accompanied by an increase in volume, it may start a new round of rebound and recovery.

Against the backdrop of slowing capital inflows and weakening demand momentum, the on-chain supply-demand structure of Bitcoin and changes in investor positions have become key to observing market health. Current data shows that there is dense supply above BTC, and a price breakthrough will require time to digest the high position chips; meanwhile, short-term holding sentiment is stabilizing, and market confidence is still in the repair stage; long-term holders are beginning to accumulate chips again, indicating that the market is entering a stage of capital rebalancing. This article will focus on three major on-chain indicators—cost basis distribution, short-term holder realized value ratio (STH RVT), and long-term holder net position changes. Through multi-dimensional comparative analysis, we will dissect the current high-level chip structure, capital support capacity, and potential risks, providing an on-chain perspective for subsequent market judgment.

There is a dense supply above BTC, and a breakthrough still requires digesting the high-level chips.

According to Glassnode data, the heatmap of BTC cost basis distribution shows that the current Bitcoin price is mainly distributed above the $105,000–$115,000 range. This range displays a significant yellow-blue dense area, indicating that a large amount of holding cost has accumulated at this price level, making it an important turnover and support zone in the current market. Although the price has recently retreated, it still remains above the main cost concentration area, showing that mainstream holders are generally still in a profitable state, and short-term support is relatively solid.【6】

At the same time, the trading volume in the area above $120,000 is low, which is considered a “vacuum zone”. If funds flow back in and trading volume increases, the price is expected to quickly break through and form a new range structure. On the contrary, if it falls below the concentrated cost area of $105,000, it may trigger profit-taking pressure from some short-term positions. Overall, BTC is currently oscillating at the upper edge of the concentrated cost zone, with market sentiment trending towards neutral and cautious.

BTC short-term holding sentiment stabilizes, market confidence still awaits recovery

According to Glassnode data, the Short Term Holder NUPL (未实现盈亏指标) has recently continued to decline, hovering around 0 or slightly in the negative range, indicating that short-term investors are generally in a slight loss or break-even state. The current STH-NUPL is about –0.05, which is still in the moderate loss range compared to the common levels of –0.1 to –0.2 during the mid-cycle adjustment phase of a bull market or below –0.2 during a bear market, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a panic selling phase.【7】

Looking at the price trend, BTC oscillates within the high buying zone of $107,000–$117,000. Although short-term selling pressure has somewhat eased, investor confidence has not yet returned to the “optimistic-trust” stage. Short-term capital sentiment is cautious, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. If the price can stabilize above the current cost-intensive area and NUPL rises back to the positive zone, it may signal the start of a new round of confidence recovery; on the contrary, if the indicator continues to decline below -0.1, it indicates that short-term speculative funds are accelerating their withdrawal, and the market may enter a medium-term adjustment cycle.

Long-term holders of BTC are re-accumulating as the market enters a phase of capital rebalancing.

According to Glassnode data, the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change indicator has recently shown a significant divergence. In the past few months, the red blocks (representing long-term holders reducing their positions) have continued to expand, indicating that some long-term investors are choosing to take profits at relatively high prices, leading to a certain degree of long-term capital release in the market. This phenomenon often occurs when prices enter a relatively overvalued range, reflecting the tendency of some long-term funds to lock in profits early.

However, the recent reappearance of the green bars in the chart indicates that a new round of long-term capital accumulation is forming, and the net buying intensity of long-term investors has slightly rebounded. Historically, this phase of transitioning from red to green usually signifies that the market is entering a consolidation bottoming or mid-term turnover phase. Overall, the selling pressure from current long-term holders has alleviated somewhat, but funds remain cautious. Continuous observation is needed to see if there is a larger scale of long-term buying inflow to confirm the restoration of market confidence and the stability of the bottom structure.

Popular Projects and Token Dynamics

On-chain data indicates that funds and users are gradually concentrating on ecosystems with interactive foundations and application depth, while projects with topicality and technological innovation capabilities are becoming a new focus of capital pursuit. In the following, this article will focus on the popular projects and tokens that have recently performed well, analyzing the logic and potential impact behind them.

Overview of Popular Project Data

Polymarket

Polymarket is currently the most representative prediction market platform on the blockchain, dedicated to deeply integrating event trading with mainstream financial markets. The platform's core philosophy is “prediction markets are financial markets,” and it launched a new product, “Up/Down Equity Markets,” in October, allowing users to directly bet on stock price fluctuations, marking the official penetration of on-chain prediction tools into the traditional stock market. This innovation not only expands the intersection of DeFi and TradFi but also propels “information trading” from a niche experiment to mainstream financial applications.

According to data from The Block, Polymarket has over 440,000 monthly active users and a monthly trading volume exceeding $2.7 billion, making it a representative platform for on-chain social and narrative financialization. At the same time, the combined trading volume of Polymarket and Kalshi in October 2025 surpassed $7 billion, indicating an overall warming of the prediction market sector. Both platforms have completed a new round of financing, with Polymarket receiving a $2 billion investment from ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, leading to a post-investment valuation of $9 billion; Kalshi, on the other hand, completed a $300 million financing round at a valuation of $5 billion. It is worth mentioning that Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan has thus become the youngest self-made billionaire in the world, further reinforcing the industry's attention and capital enthusiasm for this sector.

On both the technical and ecological levels, the surge in Kalshi's trading volume is partly due to its strategic partnership with Robinhood, allowing users to participate directly in the sports prediction market through the Robinhood platform. The CEO of Robinhood stated that the prediction market business has become one of the company's nine major business lines, with annual revenues exceeding $100 million. Its business model, which combines characteristics of gambling, trading, and media, is expected to reshape the landscape of three traditional industries. At the same time, Pyth Network announced it would provide real-time data sources for the prediction market, significantly enhancing the transparency of on-chain information and the accuracy of settlements.

It is worth noting that Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin publicly stated that prediction markets have made significant progress since Augur v1, and Polymarket is a key driving force behind this breakthrough. Overall, prediction markets are evolving from niche financial experiments to a core of mainstream narratives, gradually becoming an important infrastructure that connects on-chain assets, information flow, and cultural dissemination, ushering in a new cycle of integration between on-chain finance and real-world markets.

Popular Token Data Overview

$H

Humanity Protocol is a blockchain focused on decentralized identity verification (DID), designed to resist Sybil attacks through zero-knowledge proof mechanisms, establishing a secure, private, and verifiable human identity system. zkProofers in the platform are responsible for verifying users' human identities and receiving native token $H as rewards. The entire process is completed without storing any personal privacy information, ensuring the anonymity and credibility of identity verification. Humanity is committed to building an ecosystem where “everyone can prove humanity, protect identity, and freely participate in the digital economy,” allowing users to gain autonomous control over trust and privacy.

According to CoinGecko data, $H has risen over 300% in the past month, with nearly a 100% increase in a single week. The strong performance of Humanity is closely related to the recent capital inflow in the DePIN, DID, and SocialFi sectors. Market risk appetite is increasing, with funds rotating from mainstream assets like BTC and ETH to mid- and small-cap innovative projects, providing structural growth opportunities for $H .【10]

The project team announced in October that the core module “Human Identity Layer” has entered the internal testing phase and will soon open user verification interfaces, supporting on-chain identity registration and cross-platform social login. At the same time, the team is collaborating with several AI projects to develop datasets for training identity verification models, addressing the issues of bots and fake accounts in Web3 scenarios, making “trusted identity + AI” the focal point of the new generation market narrative.

In terms of community enthusiasm, the discussion around Humanity surged rapidly in late October. The news of the upcoming testnet launch triggered explosive growth in the Twitter and Discord communities, with widespread agreement on the logic that “human identity verification is equivalent to rights certification,” which is seen as providing a long-term sustainable identity foundation for SocialFi. While some investors have expressed concerns about the token release schedule and liquidity allocation, overall public opinion remains positive, with social media dissemination and KOL attention jointly creating a positive cycle of “narrative reinforcement - rising expectations - funding following.”

In summary, the Humanity Protocol, centered around zero-knowledge identity verification, is becoming an important representative in the “AI + DID” sector. With the launch of core modules, expansion of AI collaborations, and sustained community enthusiasm, $H has entered a healthy consolidation period after a strong rally. The short-term market remains resilient, while the medium-term trend depends on the official launch progress of the identity layer and the pace of ecosystem implementation.

Summary

In October 2025, on-chain activities and funding structures continued to show a differentiated trend, with Layer 2 and high-performance public chains seeing a sustained increase in activity, while the main chain remained stable overall. Solana maintained its top position with a monthly transaction volume of 2.5 billion, demonstrating high-frequency interaction and strong user stickiness; Polygon PoS saw a 22% month-on-month increase in transaction volume, with significant recovery in ecosystem activity; Base and Ethereum grew slightly by 1.8% and 3.9% respectively, with stable mainnet operations. In contrast, Arbitrum stood out with a month-on-month increase of over 34% in transaction volume, with both funding and activity increasing, and ecosystem liquidity continuously expanding, indicating that funds are accelerating towards leading Layer 2s.

In terms of funding, Arbitrum has recorded significant net inflows through DRIP incentives and asset tokenization deployment, further consolidating its leading position in Layer 2; Starknet has become a new focus driven by the BTCFi narrative, attracting significant capital inflows. In contrast, Ethereum and Base have experienced mild outflows, reflecting a liquidity rebalancing phase for mainstream public chains under competitive incentives. Regarding Bitcoin, after a price retreat from its peak, it has maintained a period of fluctuations and consolidation, with short-term positions stabilizing and long-term holders reaccumulating, leading the market into a structural recovery phase overall. In summary, the on-chain ecosystem presents a pattern of “high-frequency interactive chains leading, main chains stabilizing” with an increasingly apparent stratification trend in capital and usage demand.

At the project level, Polymarket combines prediction markets with mainstream finance as its core, leading a new cycle of on-chain narratives with its “Up/Down Equity Markets” product. It has surpassed 440,000 active users and a monthly trading volume of over $2.7 billion, becoming a representative platform for the financialization of events. Humanity Protocol focuses on zero-knowledge identity verification and the “AI+DID” narrative, with the token $H recently rising over 300%. Its testing progress and community enthusiasm have propelled it to become one of the most watched emerging projects in the decentralized identity space. <br> Reference:

<br> Gate Research Institute is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, hot insights, market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risks. It is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they purchase before making any investment decisions. Gate does not accept any responsibility for losses or damages incurred from such investment decisions.

STRK-16.2%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.