GateResearch

1. Exchange competition has intensified, entering a deep-water phase.
Since the emergence of the cryptocurrency market, it has been known for its rapid development, continuous innovation, and extreme volatility. After several rounds of bull and bear market transitions, the industry ecosystem has become increasingly mature, but the accompanying competition has also become fiercer. Currently, we are standing at the starting point of a market cycle that is different from the past, characterized by the acceleration of institutionalization, the rise of high-net-worth user groups, and the global wave of compliance. These deep-seated structural changes are reshaping the operational models and competitive strategies of cryptocurrency exchanges at an unprecedented speed, making the traditional "barbaric growth" or growth models solely relying on "traffic thinking" difficult to sustain.
1.1 Market Characteristics and Challenges in the Post-Bull Market Era
With the end of the 2021 bull market frenzy, the cryptocurrency market has gradually entered a more calm and rational phase. Although there are occasional rebounds, the overall market sentiment has shifted from

crypto market panorama
- BTC (0.44% | Current Price 109,531 USDT): The BTC price has been oscillating upwards since around 105,000 USDT and has formed a new oscillation platform in the range of 109,000-110,000 USDT. After reaching above 110,000 USDT, the price has slightly retraced and is currently consolidating in a narrow range around 109,531.9 USDT, indicating a tug of war between bulls and bears at this high level. In the short term, the price may continue to oscillate within this platform, with a slight retracement not being ruled out. On July 3, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 601 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT inflow of 224 million USD, Fidelity.

Abstract
- Review of DeFi Summer and the Rise of PayFi: In 2020, DeFi Summer was driven by innovative primitives such as AMM, decentralized lending, and yield aggregators, with TVL soaring from $1 billion to $15 billion within months, achieving explosive growth. Five years later, PayFi has quietly emerged as a new paradigm of on-chain payment finance, aiming to apply blockchain technology to everyday payments, emphasizing accessibility and scalable applications of the network, signaling a new wave of on-chain financial enthusiasm.
- PayFi's core driving force and business model: The core driving force of PayFi is the time value of money (TVM), which efficiently manages funds and generates returns through on-chain mechanisms. Its business model includes interest-bearing payment tokens, RWA payment financing, and payment innovations that integrate Web3 and DeFi.
- Stable

Gate Research Institute Weekly Report: This week BTC rose by 0.88%, overall performance lagging behind alts, with $110,000 being the recent resistance level. Gate launched the xStocks section for spot trading, Perptual Futures, and Alpha trading. Ripple applied for a bank license in the U.S. after Circle, planning to offer more crypto services. Bitcoin DeFi project BOB launched the BitVM Bridge Testnet, which has received support from many major crypto companies. Ethereum's stablecoin supply reached $135.4 billion, setting a new historical high. The first spot staking Solana ETF debuted, with a first-day trading volume of $33 million. Gate Launchpool launched MAT, with a total prize pool of 40,000 MAT.

crypto market panorama
- BTC (-1.43% | Current Price 105,700 USDT): BTC is consolidating in the range of 105,000 to 106,000 USDT, with a lack of direction in the short-term trend. MA5 and MA10 are trending downward, momentum is weakening, and the price is slightly below MA5, continuing a bearish pattern. Trading volume has significantly decreased since the end of June, with no effective breakout. The MACD fast line is below the slow line, and although the histogram is converging, it remains negative, indicating insufficient rebound momentum. If it cannot return above MA10, it may test the 105,000 support level again in the short-term, and attention should be paid to changes in momentum and the impact of news. On July 1, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 342 million USD, with Fidelity FBTC accounting for an outflow of 172 million USD, Grayscale.

crypto market panorama
- BTC (-1.30% | Current Price 106,810 USDT): The recent decline is a normal correction due to the previous significant upward trend of BTC. Technical analysis indicates that BTC still has strong support around the 106,000 level, and trading volume remains relatively stable. June 30 BTC

Gate Research Institute Daily: On June 30, BTC rapidly pumped from around 107,200 USDT, reaching a high of about 108,600 USDT, currently undergoing a relative high-level consolidation; ETH broke through the 2,500 USDT integer mark and briefly touched a high of 2,511.39 USDT. In terms of popular tokens, Arbitrum (ARB) benefited from DeFi activities within the ecosystem and recent new stimulus measures, rising by 16.39%; Aave (AAVE) was supported by strong user stickiness, market donations, and record loan volume and revenue, rising by 7.3%; the emerging meme coin SPX rose by 6.62% amid improving economic data and a warming market sentiment. Additionally, the Babylon Genesis Chain will adopt a dual Virtual Machine model of EVM and CosmWasm to enhance BTCFi applicability; the CBDC project led by the South Korean Central Bank has been paused, turning its focus to the Korean won stablecoin; Metaplanet issued 30 billion yen zero-interest ordinary bonds to purchase additional Bitcoin.

crypto market panorama
- BTC (-0.37% | Current price 107,460 USDT): BTC fluctuates between 106,000 and 107,000 USDT, with short-term moving averages gradually converging with medium-term moving averages, indicating a lack of direction in the short term. After a significant volume increase on the 25th, trading volume has noticeably decreased. The current price has slightly dipped below MA 5, and short-term momentum is weak. The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, lacking any clear signals for a strong upward movement. If the bulls cannot regain control, there is a risk of further downward adjustment, and close attention needs to be paid to market momentum and sentiment changes. On June 26, BTC ETF had a net inflow of 226 million USD, with BlackRock's IBIT inflowing 163 million USD, and Fidelity's FBTC inflowing 32.9 million USD, indicating that institutional funds continue to increase their allocation to Bitcoin.
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Preface
This quantitative biweekly report (from June 10 to June 23, 2025) focuses on the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, systematically analyzing key indicators such as long-short ratios, contract open interest, and funding rates, providing a quantitative interpretation of the overall market situation. This issue's quantitative strategy module emphasizes the practical application of the "RSI Trend Reversal Strategy" among the top ten cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), systematically elaborating on its strategy logic, signal determination mechanism, and execution process. Through parameter optimization and historical backtesting validation, the strategy demonstrates good stability and execution discipline in trend identification and risk control. Compared to simply holding BTC and ETH, this strategy performs better in terms of improving returns and controlling drawdowns, providing a practical reference framework for quantitative trading.
Abstract
- In the past two weeks, BTC has been between 100,000 and 110,000

1. Market Overview Last Week
Last week (from June 16 to June 23, 2025), influenced by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced an overall decline, while the altcoin market saw a more significant correction.
In terms of industry dynamics, the Solana ecosystem liquidity protocol Meteora has launched a profit and loss tracker and DLMM tool to further optimize user experience; the Renzo Protocol, in collaboration with Concrete, has introduced a Restaking Vault product aimed at institutions to promote EigenLayer.

Gate Research Institute Weekly Report: This week, BTC rose by 2.77%, and the K-line is generally in a long positions arrangement, indicating that its strong market trend will have some continuity. Altcoins showed a trend of lower lows followed by higher highs, with SEI leading the altcoin zone this week with a rise of over 50%. The Bitcoin Fork, Zero Knowledge (ZK), and Oracle zones rose by 5.3%, 5.2%, and 4.7% respectively in the past 7 days. The number of weekly active users of Ethereum stablecoin exceeded 750,000, setting a new historical high. The Bitcoin ecosystem Web3 social platform MetaSo's on-chain interactions surpassed 100 million, with a new "secondary distribution" incentive mechanism added. BitGo's custody of encryption assets surpassed $100 billion.

encryption crypto market panorama
- BTC (+1.61% | Price: 106,575 USDT): The BTC moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, with the MACD maintaining a golden cross status. Although the momentum bar is slightly converging, there is no reversal signal yet. The trading volume continues to be released moderately, indicating a market bias towards a volatile and strong pattern. In the short term, 98,000 USDT is the effective support area. If there is a subsequent surge in volume to break through the previous high resistance zone of 106,800-107,000 USDT, there is a possibility of further upward movement towards around 108,500 USDT. On the contrary, if the trading volume fails to follow through or falls below 104,000 USDT, caution is needed as the market may return to a retracement channel. On June 24th, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 588 million USD, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing an inflow of 436 million USD and Fidelity.

crypto market overview
- BTC (+4.24% 丨 Current price 105,482 USDT): Cryptocurrencies such as BTC rose last night as US President Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, with BTC topping 106,000 USDT. On the trend, 110,000 USDT is the pressure level for BTC, and holding the 100,000 USDT integer mark will further attack 110,000 USDT. On June 23, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $350 million, BlackRock IBIT had net inflows of $217 million, and Fidelity FBTC net inflows exceeded $100 million.
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crypto market panorama
- BTC (-1.26% 丨 Current price 101,106 USDT): Due to geopolitical influences, BTC fell to about 98,000 USDT and then rebounded significantly, forming the prototype of a V-shaped reversal. The short-term support is at 98,000 USDT, and the resistance is at 101,500 USDT. If it can effectively break through this resistance level, BTC is expected to further rise to the 102,800-103,500 USDT range; Conversely, if it breaks below the support of 98,000 USDT, you need to be wary of the risk of the price continuing to fall. BTC ETF inflows of $6.4 million on June 20, including $46.9 million in BlackRock IBIT and $40.5 million in Fidelity FBTC.
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Abstract
- Article Background: In this new cycle, the gameplay of Memecoins is constantly evolving. One type of gameplay relies on social media KOLs to drive it forward, using carefully planned event marketing to bring their managed Memecoins to the forefront. However, this KOL-driven Memecoin's first wave of opportunities is extremely difficult to capture. Another type of Meme is the on-chain manifestation of concepts that are exploding in the real world, and the market opportunities for these Memes are easier to predict. A more representative example of the latter includes the game "Black Myth: Wukong", the movie "Ne Zha", and the large model "DeepSeek" with the same name as the Memecoin.
- Video games: There is a high overlap between game users and cryptocurrency traders, with the main participants being young Generation Z individuals. The narrative of GameFi has already become

crypto market panorama
- BTC (-0.29% | Current price 104,647 USDT): Last week, the intraday low touched 103,000 USD, then stabilized and rebounded. However, the current price has dropped again, reflecting that market sentiment remains cautious. Overall, Bitcoin is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, and attention can be paid to the performance of support and resistance levels at the boundaries of this range. In terms of liquidity, yesterday's net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was 389 million USD, of which BlackRock's IBIT accounted for 278 million USD.
- ETH (+0.01% | Current price 2,518 USDT): Affected by the overall market correction, ETH has once again surged and then retreated, but still maintains a wide range consolidation trend. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has dipped to 0.024, and the market share has dropped to 9.22%. In terms of capital flow.

Overview
Gate Research analyzes and sorts out the market dynamics and popular airdrop projects from June 3 to June 16, 2025. During this period, the crypto market continued to fluctuate at a high level, and there has not yet been a systematic recovery, but driven by local themes, small and medium-capitalization tokens performed well. The top 500 tokens by market capitalization rose by an average of 16.65%, with the market cap ranking in the 301–400 range rising by more than 46%, indicating that the preference for assets with topical and narrative potential is still evident. AURA soared by more than 180 times, and the trading volume of projects such as CONSCIOUS was amplified by more than 100 times, and the resonance effect of volume and price was prominent; Some of the tokens that have seen large volumes but stagnate reflect the market's divergent expectations for their subsequent performance. The overall market presents a structure of "theme rotation + mainstream stability", and volume changes are still an important signal to capture short-term opportunities.

Abstract
1. BTC fluctuates narrowly around $105,000; $2,500 serves as a short-term support level for ETH.
2. The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged, expecting to cut rates twice in 2025.
3. The net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF has exceeded $10 billion.
4. Over 20,000 Bitcoin addresses hold a value of over $10 million, accounting for nearly 9.43% of the total BTC supply.
5. Ethereum staking volume exceeds 35 million coins, setting a new historical high.
6. Gate Launchpool launches SPK, with a total prize pool of 720,000 SPK.
Market Interpretation
Market Commentary
- BTC Market —— Last week, BTC was significantly impacted by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, falling to a low of 103,000 USD.