Countdown to the U.S. government shutdown! Trump suddenly cancels crucial talks, and 800,000 federal employees' salaries may be interrupted.

The U.S. federal government is facing the most severe crisis of fiscal year 2025, and if Congress cannot pass a funding bill or a temporary funding extension (continuing resolution, CR) before September 30, the government will be forced to shut down parts of its departments starting October 1. This political deadlock sharply worsened on September 23, when President Trump suddenly canceled a crucial meeting with Democratic leaders, making the last hopes of avoiding a government shutdown nearly vanish.

####Negotiation Breakdown: Trump Rejects 'Unserious and Absurd' Proposal

(Source: CBS News)

The White House talks, originally seen as the last window to resolve the crisis, turned into a mirage following Trump's sudden decision. Trump posted on his social platform Truth Social, stating that the Democratic proposal is "not serious and ridiculous," and firmly declared, "Unless they become pragmatic, the meeting will be meaningless."

This decision immediately triggered a strong backlash from the Democratic Party. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated on the X platform that Trump "is always cowardly" and criticized extreme factions for delaying healthcare reform; Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Trump of "backing down before getting to the negotiation table" and said he must take responsibility for the possible consequences of a government shutdown.

####Core Differences in Bipartisan Disputes

The core of this political deadlock lies in the fundamental differences between the two parties regarding the funding bill:

#####Republican Position:

· Persist in extending the funds until November 21.

· Oppose any additional policy terms

· Emphasize avoiding an increase in the fiscal deficit

· The additional demands from the Democratic Party will endanger military salaries and disaster relief.

#####Democratic Party Position:

· Request to include the extension of the medical assistance program in the bill

· Emphasize the need to include disaster relief funds.

· Believe that these measures are crucial for protecting the American public

· Criticized the Republican Party for "holding the government hostage" and ignoring the healthcare security of millions of people.

####The Mechanism of Government Shutdowns and Historical Lessons

The U.S. federal government must pass 12 appropriations bills each year to fund about a quarter of the federal spending budget (i.e., "discretionary" spending), covering key areas such as defense, healthcare, and education. The fiscal year 2025 will end on September 30, but Congress has yet to pass any complete bills.

Historically, the U.S. government has shut down multiple times due to similar controversies. The most recent large-scale shutdown occurred in 2018-2019 and lasted a record 35 days, causing billions of dollars in economic losses. The focal point of the controversy at that time was the funding for the border wall demanded by the Trump administration, which ultimately reached a compromise under public pressure.

####Recent Negotiation Progress and Failure

On September 19, the House of Representatives passed a short-term funding bill proposed by the Republicans with a narrow margin of 217 votes to 212, aimed at keeping the government running until November. However, Senate Democrats blocked the bill, citing its neglect of healthcare needs.

On September 22, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries publicly called for Trump to negotiate and arranged a meeting at the White House this week in an attempt to reach a consensus. However, this meeting, seen as a last hope, was unilaterally canceled by Trump on September 23.

Currently, both proposals are stalled, and Congress has adjourned, leaving little time for substantial negotiations.

####The Broad Impact of Government Shutdown

If the government shuts down on October 1, its impact will affect all levels of society:

#####1. Federal Employees' Livelihood Crisis

About 800,000 federal employees will face the predicament of unpaid leave. Although, based on past experiences, these salaries may be reimbursed after the government reopens, the financial situation of these families will face severe challenges in the short term. This sudden income interruption could lead to an inability to pay mortgages, rents, or daily expenses, especially for those grassroots civil servants who were already living paycheck to paycheck.

#####2. Public services completely interrupted

National Parks Closed: Hundreds of national parks across the U.S. will be unable to open normally, affecting millions of people planning to travel.

Immigration service delays: Immigration hearings canceled, visa and green card processing will be delayed.

Student loan processing paused: Millions of students who rely on student loans may face delays in funding disbursement.

Tax services interruption: Taxpayers will be unable to receive normal tax consultation and processing services.

#####3. Economic Impact and Market Response

According to economists, each week of closure could result in billions of dollars in economic losses. This not only affects government direct spending, but also impacts businesses reliant on government contracts, supply chain health, and overall consumer confidence.

Financial markets may also react negatively to a government shutdown, especially against the backdrop of current economic pressures from inflation and slowing growth, as a government shutdown could further exacerbate market volatility.

####Possible Paths to Resolve the Crisis

Currently, possible paths to resolve this deadlock include:

Short-term compromise: Both parties may reach an extremely short-term (e.g., a few weeks) funding extension agreement at the last minute to buy time for more comprehensive negotiations.

Omnibus bill: Separate controversial items (such as Medicaid) from basic government operating funds.

Public pressure: As the deadline approaches, public and market pressure may force both parties back to the negotiating table.

Presidential Intervention: Trump may change his stance at the last moment and re-engage in negotiations to avoid political responsibility.

####Political Influence and Voter Reaction

This crisis occurred on the eve of the election, and its political implications cannot be ignored. Voters typically hold a negative view of the party that causes a government shutdown, which could affect the outcome of the elections in November.

Polls show that the majority of Americans oppose shutting down the government for political purposes, regardless of their political stance. This public sentiment may ultimately become a key factor in breaking the deadlock.

Currently, there are no signs of concession from either side, and the American public can only hope that the pressure from a government shutdown accumulates to a critical point, forcing both sides to compromise or reach a compromise solution. As the September 30 deadline quickly approaches, the developments in the coming days will determine whether the lives of millions of Americans will be directly affected by a government shutdown.