XRP/BTC historical ratio analysis: If BTC rises to $200,000, the target price for XRP is $9 to $10.

Famous crypto assets analyst Dennis (also known as Virtual Bacon) recently stated on a program that XRP could reach 9 to 10 USD in this market cycle. He predicts that XRP will hit 4.5 USD by the end of 2025 or early 2026 based on the historical price ratio of XRP/BTC. Additionally, the analyst also discussed the potential impact of the XRP ETF, believing that the launch of a Spot ETF will be a key turning point in driving price pump.

1. Price Prediction Based on Historical Ratio of XRP/BTC

In an interview with Paul Barron, Dennis elaborated on his predictions for the price of XRP. He pointed out that XRP performed poorly during the 2020 cycle, failing to replicate the highs of 2017. Therefore, he uses the XRP/BTC ratio as his main predictive basis. Dennis believes that if Bitcoin can reach $120,000 (he personally expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000), and if XRP regains its 2020 high ratio of 0.000033 BTC, then the price of XRP is expected to reach $4.5. He anticipates that this target will be achieved by the end of this year or in January 2026, after the initial surge brought about by the ETF subsides.

For longer-term market cycle peaks, Dennis predicts that if Bitcoin rises further to $200,000, while the XRP/BTC ratio reaches 0.00005 BTC, the price of XRP could rise to the range of $9 to $10. Currently, the XRP/BTC ratio is about 0.000025, which means Dennis expects XRP's performance to exceed Bitcoin by 100%. He emphasizes that these are realistic mid-term and cycle peak predictions, and any higher prices would require extremely optimistic market conditions.

2. The Potential Impact and Challenges of XRP ETF

In addition to price predictions, Dennis and Paul Barron also discussed the potential impact of the XRP ETF. Barron pointed out that XRP has launched an ETF product alongside Dogecoin, viewing it as a momentum trade. He specifically referred to the REX-Osprey hybrid ETF product, which holds up to 80% exposure to BTC and set the highest natural opening trading volume when it debuted in 2025.

Dennis responded that while momentum trading does exist, the real turning point will be the launch of the Spot XRP ETF, which he expects to happen in about a month. Barron then mentioned Steven McClurg from Canary, who predicted that the XRP ETF could see inflows of up to $5 billion, making it one of the largest ETF issuances in history. However, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart was more cautious, believing that BTC will still maintain its leading position.

Dennis emphasized the distinction between price performance and capital inflow. He believes that due to the high volatility of XRP, its ETF might outperform BTC in terms of price performance and could rival Ethereum. However, the $5 billion capital inflow only accounts for 1.5% of XRP's existing circulating supply, which appears relatively modest compared to the 5.5% proportion that the Spot Ethereum ETF already holds of its total supply.

3. Opinions of Other Analysts

In addition to Dennis, other analysts are also closely monitoring the price trend of XRP. For example, analyst Dark Defender pointed out that XRP fell back after encountering resistance around $3.13, but its overall structure remains intact. He stated that the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is approaching the oversold area, and he is optimistic about XRP breaking out of the descending wedge pattern, setting target prices of $4.17, $4.92, and $5.85, while viewing $2.8057 and $2.64 as key support levels.

Another analyst, Javon Marks, focuses on XRP's ability to stay above $2.47, which he believes is the basis for a continued rise. He has set a target of $4.804, which implies a potential rise of 66% from the current level.

Conclusion

Dennis and other analysts' predictions have injected a boost of confidence into the XRP community. Their optimistic expectations for the XRP price, particularly based on the analysis of the XRP/BTC ratio, provide investors with a new perspective. Although the launch of the ETF has brought significant market attention and potential capital inflows, Dennis's calm analysis reminds us that the scale of capital inflows and the volatility of asset prices are two separate considerations. Ultimately, whether XRP can achieve these grand goals depends not only on the market's reaction to the ETF but also on its long-term utility and acceptance within the entire Crypto Assets ecosystem.