Ethereum (ETH) price prediction: The market is experiencing widespread dumping while long-term holders continue to accumulate, and it may still challenge the $10,000 mark.

After a widespread altcoin liquidation of 4.2 billion dollars, the price of Ethereum has fallen by 4.2% in the past 24 hours, hovering around 4,185 dollars. Despite the price pressure, on-chain data shows that over 420,000 ETH left the exchange this week, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating. Currently, Ethereum is in the critical range of 4,000 dollars and 4,800 dollars, and its short-term trend will depend on whether it can hold the support level of 4,000 dollars.

Price Fall and Macroeconomic Headwinds

Ethereum is currently trading around $4,185, down about 4% in the past 24 hours. This price drop comes after a week of price consolidation, during which Ethereum failed to break through the key resistance level of $4,500 multiple times.

This round of fall is part of a widespread sell-off in the crypto market. Bitcoin also experienced a decline during this period, with the sell-off across the market leading to over $1.7 billion in altcoin liquidations, further intensifying the downward pressure on Ethereum.

Macroeconomic factors have also played a role in exacerbating the situation. Recently, the continuous net outflow of U.S. ETFs, coupled with persistent concerns about inflation and expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, have made market sentiment cautious, thereby putting pressure on prices.

On-chain data shows complex signals

On-chain data shows that Ethereum is continuously flowing out of exchanges. This week, it was reported that over 420,000 ETH left exchanges, a trend that is typically interpreted as long-term holders accumulating and suggesting that future supply may tighten, thereby boosting prices.

However, despite the optimistic supply-side signals, market sentiment remains cautious as traders worry that prices may further retrace. The contradiction between outflows from the exchange and falling prices reflects the complexity of market sentiment: long-term investors seem to accumulate during price weakness, while short-term traders remain vigilant about the near-term outlook.

Technical analysis points to key levels

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical perspective, Ethereum's price is hovering below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but remains above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average, which constitutes mixed signals.

Currently, the Ethereum price is trapped between the $4,000 support level and the $4,800 resistance level, and this consolidation area is crucial for the recent trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 41, indicating that bearish momentum may persist. If the price falls further, it may retest the major support level.

Analysts point out that the range between $4,200 and $3,800 is a potential support level. Some warn that if the current support level is lost, the price could pull back to the range of $3,700 to $3,800, which is similar to the consolidation patterns seen in past cycles. However, the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, with many strategists believing that any further pullback presents a potential accumulation opportunity. In the later stages of this cycle, the possibility of Ethereum's price returning to $10,000 still exists.

The next 24 to 48 hours could be crucial for the short-term trend, with the consensus being that Ethereum's next move will depend on whether the support above $4,000 can hold. Macroeconomic headwinds, including ETF capital flows and global market sentiment, will also play a role. A drop below the $4,000 range could trigger heavier selling, but if the accumulation trend continues, there could also be a strong rebound in price, as substantial outflows from exchanges indicate strong underlying demand at the current price level.

Conclusion

The recent price pullback of Ethereum is not an isolated event but rather a reflection of broader market sentiment and macroeconomic headwinds. While Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies face widespread selling pressure, Ethereum has not been spared. Although short-term technical indicators and market sentiment appear slightly pessimistic, the long-term bullish signals revealed by on-chain data cannot be ignored. The significant outflow of ETH from exchanges indicates that forward-looking investors are taking advantage of the current price weakness for strategic accumulation. While this may not offset the downward pressure brought by macro factors in the short term, it lays a solid foundation for Ethereum's future recovery and growth.