Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: Whale and young holders intensify selling pressure, a 2% pullback may occur before hitting the $120,000 mark.

Despite the fact that the Bitcoin price technically maintains a bullish structure, on-chain data shows that selling pressure from Whales and younger coin age groups with shorter holding periods is increasing. Since September 15th, approximately 30,000 Bitcoins have flowed out of large Wallets, while the spending ratio of multiple coin age groups has also significantly increased. These signals suggest that before the bull run trend resumes, the Bitcoin price may face a short-term pullback risk of 2%, with a key support level at $114,900.

On-chain selling pressure emerges: Whales and young coin holders exit

Bitcoin's price has remained stable following its recent breakthrough, trading at around $117,100 at the time of writing, with a 1.3% rise in the past 24 hours and a weekly increase of 3%. However, on-chain data indicates that not everything is smooth sailing, with signs suggesting that there may be a slight pullback before the next wave of rise.

Since September 15, the two largest groups of Bitcoin wallets—commonly referred to as "Whales" and "Sharks"—have been reducing their holdings. These wallets hold between 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins and 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoins, respectively.

· The group of Wallets holding 1,000-10,000 Bitcoins has seen their holdings decrease from 4.35 million Bitcoins to 4.33 million.

· The group holding 10,000-100,000 Bitcoins saw their holdings decrease from 2.17 million Bitcoins to 2.16 million.

(Source: Santiment)

In just four days, these two major groups have net flowed out approximately 30,000 Bitcoins. At the current price of over $117,000, this amounts to nearly $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin being dumped.

Another key on-chain indicator - Spent Output Age Bands - also confirms this phenomenon. This indicator tracks the proportion of Bitcoin that is moved or sold in different "age bands". In the past two weeks, the spending share of all young coin age groups has increased:

· Holders holding for 1 week to 1 month: increased from 8.72% to 9.78%.

· Holders who hold for 1 to 3 months: from 3.67% rise to 6.08%.

· Holders of 3 to 6 months: increased from 2.04% to 3.26%.

· Holders holding for 6 to 12 months: increased from 1.64% to 3.18%.

These groups are often considered "young" holders because they have purchased or moved Bitcoin in the past year. Unlike long-term investors who have held their investments unchanged for years, young holders are more likely to take profits when prices rise. The rises across all four ranges suggest that more medium- and short-term holders may be cashing out, which aligns with the selling behavior of the Whale group, creating a clear recent supply pressure scenario.

The technical outlook remains bullish, but there are short-term risks.

Although there are signs of dumping on-chain, the overall technical pattern remains bullish. Since Bitcoin broke out of an inverted head and shoulders pattern on September 10, its price has remained above the breakout level. As long as the Bitcoin price stays above $114,900, its short-term upward target remains $120,800.

However, a price pullback to $114,900 in the short term seems more realistic, as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) data is also flashing another risk signal. From August 22 to September 18, Bitcoin's price formed lower highs, while the RSI created higher highs. This hidden bearish divergence typically indicates that momentum is weakening, leaving room for a 2% pullback in the short term (to the most recent and strongest support level).

Price Outlook and Key Levels

Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between technical bullishness and on-chain dumping. If the Bitcoin price can hold the support level of $114,900, its rise trend will be confirmed, and it is expected to challenge the initial target of $120,800.

Conversely, if the Bitcoin price falls below $114,900, the pullback could extend to $110,000. A daily closing price below this level would weaken the current bullish structure.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a "tug of war" between technical indicators and on-chain data. On one hand, breakthrough technical patterns suggest that there is still upward potential for the price; on the other hand, profit-taking by Whales and short to medium-term holders is creating real supply pressure on the market. This short-term selling pressure can be seen as a healthy adjustment in a bull run, eliminating weak holders and laying a more solid foundation for the next rise. Investors should closely monitor key support levels to determine whether the price will continue to climb after a brief pullback or face a deeper correction.