Encryption Weekly Outlook: The CLARITY Act, SEC Appeal Decision, and Rate Cut Expectations Boost the Market! BTC Breaks $117,000 to Set a New High

SEC vs Ripple Case: Uncertainty Shifts to Optimism, XRP Breaks Key Resistance Level

• The closed-door meeting yields no results, market ignores silence and rises strongly: After Judge Analisa Torres rejected the joint motion for a declaratory ruling on the settlement terms from both parties, the SEC held a second closed-door meeting. However, the SEC has remained silent for the second consecutive week. Despite the regulatory body's silence, the price of XRP surged to $2.5677, reaching its highest level since May 15. Notably, Thursday's breakthrough rise successfully reversed the decline caused by the judge's first declaratory ruling on the settlement terms.
• SEC Withdrawal of Appeal Expected to Sustain Demand: The market's optimism regarding the SEC's withdrawal of its appeal against the "XRP programmatic sales" ruling has continued to drive demand for XRP tokens. The SEC must submit a status report to the U.S. Court of Appeals by August 15, detailing the progress of the parties' settlement. Given that Judge Torres has denied the motion for a declaratory judgment, crypto investors generally expect that the SEC and Ripple will file motions to dismiss their respective appeals before mid-August.
• Ripple Withdraws Lawsuit, Waiting for SEC Vote: Ripple announced on June 27 that it has abandoned its cross-appeal, placing pressure on the SEC to internally vote on whether to withdraw the appeal. Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel reiterated the current status of the case: "Please note that neither party has formally withdrawn the appeal. The most likely scenario is that once the SEC votes to approve the dismissal of its appeal, both parties will jointly submit documents." SEC's Appeal Decision has become the core suspense of the current XRP price trend.

XRP Spot ETF: Case Conclusion May Become a Key Catalyst

• End of the case or acceleration of ETF approval: The conclusion of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple may greatly accelerate the approval process for the US XRP spot ETF, significantly increasing the demand for XRP tokens. Importantly, once both parties withdraw their appeals, asset management giant BlackRock, BLK( may also submit an application for the XRP spot ETF. Although BlackRock has not yet submitted an application, it met with the SEC's crypto working group in May to discuss ETF approval standards.
• SEC to Establish Crypto ETF Framework: Following this meeting, the SEC announced plans to release a set of cryptocurrency ETF listing standard framework. The May meeting sparked widespread crypto market speculation regarding BlackRock potentially submitting an ETF application.
• iShares ETF or Reshaping Supply and Demand Patterns: If the iShares XRP spot ETF is launched, it could have a revolutionary impact on the token supply and demand dynamics of XRP. For reference, since its launch in January 2024, the iShares Bitcoin Trust )IBIT( has recorded a net inflow of $53.003 billion, effectively offsetting the outflow of $23.384 billion from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust )GBTC(, bringing the total net inflow of the U.S. BTC spot ETF market to $50.521 billion. The potential for institutional capital inflow is enormous.

XRP Price Outlook: Legislation, SEC Votes, and ETF Headlines Dominate Direction

• Strong rebound, leading the market: XRP surged 5.84% on July 10 (Thursday), continuing Wednesday's 4.03% gain, closing at $2.5461. Its performance outperformed the market (the overall cryptocurrency market rose by 4.43%), driving the total cryptocurrency market capitalization back up to $3.57 trillion.
• Key Drivers: The short-term trend of XRP will depend on: 1) SEC appeal voting results; 2) progress of U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory legislation (such as the CLARITY Act); 3) U.S. XRP spot ETF news headlines.
• Technical Analysis Path:

  • Bullish Scenario: If it can continue to break above the July 10 high of $2.5677, the bulls' target could point to the May high of $2.6553. If it can hold above this level, it is expected to test $3 and may challenge the 2025 high of $3.3999.

  • Bearish Scenario: If it breaks below the $2.50 support, it may open up space to test $2.40, with $2.30 being the next key XRP resistance level.

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Bitcoin Hits All-Time High of $117,000: A Perfect Storm of Multiple Positive Factors

• Milestone Moment: When XRP reached an eight-week high, Bitcoin )BTC( set a historical high (ATH) of $117,341.4 on July 10 at Gate.
• Core Drivers: Multiple favorable factors converge to form a "perfect storm":
  1. Regulatory Environment Shift: Key legislation (including the CLARITY Act) will be the focus during the week of July 14 ("Crypto Week"), improving the crypto regulatory outlook.
  2. Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts Rise: The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 70.3% probability of a Fed rate cut in September (up from 68.1% on July 3), with increased bets on Q3 rate cuts.

3. Macroeconomic Risk Mitigation: Easing of the China-U.S. trade tensions and reduced concerns about a U.S. economic recession. Polymarket data shows that the probability of a U.S. economic recession has fallen from 66% in May to 19%.
4. Institutional demand surges: Corporate treasury holdings and spot ETF inflows continue to bring institutional buying pressure.

U.S. BTC Spot ETF Aims for Six Days of Net Inflow, Institutions Continue to Increase Positions

• ETF Fund Inflows Boost Price Surge: The catalyst that drove BTC to soar on July 10 also stimulated demand for the US BTC Spot ETF. The net inflow of funds for five consecutive days has been a significant driver of the price increase this week.
• Significant inflow on July 10: According to data from Farside Investors:
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund )FBTC(: Net inflow of $324.3 million.
  • ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF )ARKB(: Net inflow of $268.7 million.
  • Bitwise Bitcoin ETF )BITB( and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust )BTC(: Total net inflow of $159.1 million.
• Strong Trend Continues: With the data pending for BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust )IBIT( (expected inflow), the total net inflow of BTC spot ETF in the US reached $727.1 million on July 10. Notably, in the past 22 trading days, the market recorded net inflows on 21 days, totaling $6.612 billion. The ETF inflow trend is extremely strong.
• Industry Perspective: Nate Geraci, President of TheETF Store, commented: "I remember many traditional finance people told me that spot Bitcoin ETF investors equate to 'exit liquidity'... Since the launch of the ETF in January 2024, Bitcoin has risen by 150%. Now, traditional finance is evidently scrambling to get in." Institutional FOMO sentiment is showing.

BTC Price Outlook: Trade, Legislation, Policy, and ETF Fund Flow Direction

• Strong Close: BTC rose 3.51% on July 10, continuing Wednesday's increase of 2.13%, closing at $115,159.
• Key Influencing Factors: Short-term price movements depend on:
  • Trade-related headlines (such as retaliation against Trump's tariff letter)
  • Legislative Progress (Hearing and Member Voting)
  • Policy signals conveyed by Federal Reserve officials' speeches (hawkish/dovish)
  • Spot ETF Capital Flow Trend (the core factor affecting supply and demand balance)
• Potential Scenario Analysis:
  • Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, legislative roadblocks, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and significant capital outflows from ETFs. A combination of factors may pull BTC back to test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average )EMA(.
  • Bullish Scenario: Easing trade frictions, bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and continued inflows into ETFs. In this scenario, BTC is expected to break through the $120,000 mark.
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Key Points for Crypto Investors to Watch Next Week

In the coming week, the following key drivers will determine whether XRP and BTC can test historical highs:

1. Ripple case progress: SEC appeal plan (will it be formally withdrawn?).
2. Legislative Dynamics: Progress of hearings and votes by legislators on the U.S. crypto bill (such as the CLARITY Act).
3. Trade Headlines: Potential trade countermeasures from the U.S. regarding the Trump tariff letter.
4. Federal Reserve Policy: The hawkish or dovish signals released by officials affect the liquidity expectations in the crypto market.
5. ETF Market Dynamics: The fund flows trend of the BTC/XRP spot ETF, especially the institutional capital direction, is crucial for maintaining the bull market.