分析师解释为何比特币仍被看作顶点，以及为何山寨币季尚未到来

Analyst explains why Bitcoin top still expected

He also explores why altseason has not yet arrived

This points to bullish crypto and BTC pumps.

As the price of the pioneer crypto asset, Bitcoin (BTC), continues to trade above the $100,000 price mark, the crypto community continues to debate between bearish and bullish expectations. Presently, debates lie between whether the Bitcoin bear market has begun and if the BTC cycle top is in. One analyst explains why Bitcoin top still expected and why altseason has not yet arrived

Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Top Still Expected

With the year moving closer to its final weeks, analysts grow more and more eager over expecting altseason and its peak phase. Many believe that the bear market has already begun, meaning the price of BTC has already set its cycle top and that altseason may have been missed this bull cycle. On this matter, other analysts argue that the BTC to isn’t in yet, which means altseason is still loading

As we can see from the post above, this reputed and popular crypto analyst says that he believes the BTC cycle top isn’t in yet and shares multiple reasons to support his bullish hypothesis. The first indicator he highlights is the fact that there was no euphoria stage for the crypto market. He recalls how people keep saying that we are in a 4-year cycle, but there was no euphoria at the top and marks how people were 100x more euphoric in December 2024 than now

Next, he sheds light on the Gold-BTC correlation, where Gold has cooled off after a rally. BTC has usually followed gold with a 3-month lag, which indicates a rally this month. No Altseason, he also says that a few coins even pump in a bear market. He then concludes that just because a handful of altcoins are pumping, it doesn’t mean Altseason is happening, and there has been no blow-off top without an Altseason

Next, he focuses on liquidity, saying the Bitcoin current setup is more comparable to 2019 than 2021. He states that the thing most people misunderstand is that there’s a 4-year cycle. He says that there is only a business cycle and nothing else, a thesis based on facts and data he has compiled He also says that he is looking closely at the weekly EMA-50 level now at $103,000, which has been a bull/bear line since Q1 2023.

Why Altseason Has Not Yet Arrived?

As for the question of ‘why is there no Altseason?’, the same analyst explains in another post, as we see above. He begins by highlighting the fact that $125 billion has been liquidated in leverage this year alone. If that capital went into spot assets instead, there would be no thin liquidity across the market, no cascade that results in market crashes, and less selling pressure. Finally, he concludes saying if that was the scenario, there could have been a total crypto market cap of $5 - $6 trillion today, instead we are seeing that leverage is killing the bull, and concludes with encouragement for ‘Spot HODL is the real season’.