April 9th BTC Trend Analysis and Trading Strategy🚀

BTC fluctuated within 70,500-72,800 during the day, about 53% lower than the October 2025 ATH of 126k, with a bottoming process in the 66k-75k range.

Market Situation:
① ETF capital inflows remain strong, with a net inflow of $471 million on April 6th alone, totaling over $53 billion in inflows, indicating continued institutional accumulation.
② On-chain: Exchange reserves decline, long-term holders remain stable, whale accumulation is evident (Figure 1).
③ Trading volume has rebounded, but geopolitical events suppress short-term sentiment.

Macro Events:
① The US-Iran conflict is the biggest variable. At the end of February, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, causing oil prices to spike and the Strait of Hormuz to be blocked, leading to global energy tension. A two-week temporary ceasefire was reached on April 7-8, but Iran demands a permanent agreement and has提出多项条件,特朗普称其“不够好”。Ceasefire is fragile; if maintained or oil prices fall → risk assets benefit; if escalation occurs → short-term safe-haven, but BTC as “digital gold” remains resilient.
② The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with no expectation of significant rate cuts in the near term. The DXY remains strong, suppressing high-beta assets, but the “bad news is good news” logic persists. Once oil prices decline or CPI peaks, liquidity expectations will reignite, boosting BTC.

Personal Macro ➕ Technical Outlook (DYOR):
Short-term (April-May):
Likely to fluctuate within 66k-75k.
Catalysts: Ceasefire implementation + oil price decline + April CPI data.
Mid-term (Q2-Q3):
Bullish main trend, target 90k-100k+.
Reasons: Continuous ETF inflows, institutional rotation, and the halving cycle’s later phase pattern.
Maximum Downside 📉 Risk:
Geopolitical escalation causing oil prices to surge → break below 65k, but strong support around 60k.
Upside 📈 Catalysts:
DXY weakens + oil prices rebound → rapid rally.

Candlestick Technical Analysis:
Weekly: The overall idea remains unchanged, mainly wide-range oscillation, with a range between 62,900 and 74,600. Patience is needed for MACD golden cross; after the cross, wait for the fast and slow lines to oscillate around zero and rebound, then watch for a potential downward move on the weekly level.
Daily: From a technical perspective, the current position has not fully adjusted; it will still oscillate with minor upward movements. The current range is 69,900-72,700, facing resistance from the daily downtrend line.
4H: As long as it does not break below 69,900, look for rebounds. Resistance above is at 72,700; if it stabilizes, it may move around 74,600.
1H, 15min: Pay attention to resistance at these smaller levels. As long as it does not stabilize above 72,700, watch for downward retests of 69,900, since even if there is a rebound on the 1-hour level, there is a high risk of divergence.
Summary: The weekly level mainly fluctuates in a wide range; the daily level has not yet fully adjusted. Focus on the small-level retest of support at 69,900.

Iran accuses 🇺🇸 of violating agreements, the Strait of Hormuz closes again, and the market dips on the news. Oil prices quickly rebound upward. Peace will not be achieved smoothly in one go; there will be repeated tug-of-war and negotiations, reflected in the charts as ups and downs. Short-term traders should implement strong risk controls.

🌞 If anyone has better insights, welcome to discuss and correct in the comments!