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Bitcoin has been in a range-bound consolidation for two consecutive months, and historical patterns suggest the market may repeat a downward trend.
Deep Tide TechFlow message, April 07, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has been trading in a range for two consecutive months. The price highs are concentrated in the $72k to $75k range, while the lows are between $62k and $65k. Similar conditions occurred last November through this January, and ultimately an overall market downward trend emerged; therefore, the current market is not ruling out a replay of that scenario.
In terms of derivatives data, the overall market is still in a consolidation phase. Bitcoin open interest (OI) remains stable at around $16.7 billion, with little change from the previous week, indicating that speculative activity is staying steady. The funding rate has returned to a neutral range of 0%-6%. Previously, the negative funding-rate environment drove a rebound from short-seller covering. Sentiment in the options market is stabilizing as the share of call options rises to 47%, but the front end of the implied volatility term structure is inverted, suggesting that traders are still prioritizing hedging against near-term downside risk.