Toncoin (TON) — Channel Dilemma Ahead of Technical Upgrade

Toncoin is currently priced at approximately $1.254, within a downward channel that has persisted for two months since early February. The sub-second confirmation upgrade is set to fully activate on April 7, during which validators will vote to enable the high-speed consensus mechanism between the basechain and masterchain. This technical milestone is worth watching.

On the technical side, from February 7 to April 5, TON's price recorded lower highs, while the RSI showed higher highs, forming a "hidden bearish divergence" pattern, indicating that the current downtrend may continue. The MACD line has already crossed downward, signaling that downward momentum remains.

Analysts note that TON has broken out of a triangle pattern and is now moving sideways. Clear support levels have formed around it. If the closing price falls below this support, it could present a shorting opportunity, with an expected decline of 25% to 40%. The Bollinger Bands indicator gives a neutral rating, and the 4-hour technical rating is "Sell."

$TON ‌
Toncoin's deep integration with the Telegram ecosystem is its core narrative. Telegram's large user base provides TON with natural distribution channels and application scenarios. If the April 7 sub-second confirmation upgrade activates smoothly, it could improve network performance and user experience, serving as a price catalyst.

On the macro level, risk appetite contraction is unfavorable for assets like TON that are in a downtrend. If the overall market recovers and the upgrade proceeds smoothly, TON may break out of the downward channel; conversely, if market sentiment continues to worsen or the upgrade underperforms expectations, there is a risk of decline toward the $0.80 to $1.00 range. Investors should closely monitor the network performance and market reactions after the April 7 upgrade.

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