🔴 A scenario nobody wants to talk about.

What if every Bitcoin cycle top follows the same script?

2017: $19K → -84% → $3K

2021: $69K → -77% → $15K

2025: $126K → -72% → ~$35K

Three cycles.

Three crashes.

Almost identical drawdowns.

This isn’t a prediction.

It’s pattern recognition.

And the pattern is uncomfortably consistent.

Here’s what bulls always say at this point:

“This cycle is different.”

“Institutions are in.”

“ETFs changed everything.”

They said the same thing in 2021.

At $69K.

Now the macro:

Global liquidity still tightening

US debt pressure into 2026

Halving euphoria fades 12–18 months after peak

If the pattern holds (and it has 3 times):

It’s not $60K.

Not $50K.

It’s ~$32K–$35K.

Maybe it doesn’t happen.

Maybe this time really is different.

But if you’re not stress-testing for this scenario

you’re not managing risk.

You’re hoping.

What’s your base case for BTC bottom this cycle? 👇

‍#Bitcoin #crypto #blockchain