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I just noticed something interesting with UNI. On February 11, the price absolutely exploded after that BlackRock news dropped — jumped almost 42% to $4.57 in a single session. Everyone was talking about institutional money finally flowing in. But here's the thing that caught my eye: the rally already looks shaky.
Looking back at the chart, there were actual warning signs way before the breakout. The RSI was showing a bullish divergence for weeks — price kept making lower lows but momentum was actually getting stronger. That's usually a good setup. Then OBV broke above its downtrend right when the news hit, which normally means retail is piling in. So far so good, right?
But the candle on that day had a massive upper wick and tiny body. Sellers were already pushing back. And then I checked whale data — large holders dumped about 6 million UNI tokens at those prices. That's roughly $27 million in selling pressure while retail was still buying the hype. Classic move: whales let retail do the heavy lifting, then distribute into the excitement.
The price is now down to $3.22 after retracing about 26% from the peak. Most late buyers probably got caught off guard. The 4-hour chart shows the technical target was already hit, and OBV was actually diverging bearish even as price climbed — meaning volume wasn't really supporting the move.
So was this a real breakout or just a liquidity grab? Right now it feels more like the latter. Support is around $3.21, but it's fragile because it's built on short-term momentum, not real accumulation. If that breaks, we could see another leg down to $2.80. The real question is whether UNI can reclaim the $3.68-$3.96 zone. Until then, the bullish divergence signal that looked promising weeks ago feels pretty hollow.