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The overall market today shows a pattern of sharp rises followed by declines, with a bearish dominance. BTC has been under pressure since the intraday high around 69,136, briefly dropping to a low of 67,577 in the morning. The short-term rebound momentum has significantly weakened, diverging clearly from the previous expectation of oscillating upward. Ethereum also weakened simultaneously and followed Bitcoin downward. Given the highly correlated market characteristics, there is currently a lack of independent downside resistance.
On the daily chart, the moving average system shows a bearish arrangement, with EMA7 and EMA25 both turning downward. The price is trading below the moving averages, and the rebound has failed to effectively break through the medium-term resistance zone. Additionally, the rebound volume is insufficient, and the size of the bullish candles is small. The bullish capital is weakly willing to enter, mostly just technical repairs, which are unlikely to be sustainable. The market has shifted from oscillating upward to a weaker trend. A short-term correction is clearly needed, with key support levels at 65,000-66,000 to watch for their effectiveness.
On the four-hour chart, the downward trend continues, with the price breaking below the lower channel support. The moving averages exert significant downward pressure, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has become a critical resistance level. The MACD bearish momentum continues to release, while RSI and KDJ indicators are in the low zone. Even if an oversold rebound is needed, insufficient volume follow-up suggests that after a rebound, the market is likely to weaken again. The short-term bearish trend further confirms the continuation of the daily bearish trend.
Currently, the bullish forces in the market have already exhausted, with bears dominating the short-term market. The morning rebound presents a good opportunity for shorting. Therefore, today’s overall strategy is mainly to go short at higher levels.
Specific trading suggestions: Pay attention to the resistance at 67,600-67,100 and 69,300-68,800. If the price holds above these resistance levels, consider shorting at higher levels. The downside space is about 500-6,000 points.