Just caught something interesting in the market right now. Samson Mow from Jan3 is making a pretty compelling case that Bitcoin is genuinely underpriced compared to where it should be trading against gold. He's saying BTC is anywhere from 24% to 66% below its historical trend, which is a pretty wide gap if he's right.

The metric he's using is the BTC-to-gold Z-score, which basically measures how far Bitcoin has strayed from its normal relationship with gold. Right now it's sitting at -1.24. For context, back in March 2020 during the COVID crash, this metric dropped below -2 and Bitcoin went on a 300% run over the next year. November 2022 was even more extreme - it fell below -3 before Bitcoin recovered 150% in the following 12 months. So while -1.24 isn't hitting those panic levels yet, Samson Mow sees it as an early warning that Bitcoin is trading well below where it should be relative to gold.

What's wild is how much bigger gold still is. Last year gold was sitting somewhere between $20.8 trillion and $28 trillion in market cap, while Bitcoin was around $2.2 trillion. That's roughly 10 times the size. Even when you add them together, gold and Bitcoin only make up about 29% of global M2 money supply, which was hovering around $103 trillion.

Mow's been pretty vocal about his long-term conviction too. He's sticking with his $1 million Bitcoin target, potentially hitting sometime between 2031 and 2033 if things play out as he expects. He talks about this "Omega Candle" breakout that would trigger once BTC decisively breaks above $100K - basically a structural repricing that pulls in massive demand. Beyond the price action, Samson Mow also thinks we'll see more nation-states adopting Bitcoin formally, similar to what El Salvador did.

Not everyone's buying the thesis though. Some traders are still worried Bitcoin could dip back toward $50K if geopolitical risks spike. The traditional argument is that gold acts as a safe haven during crises while Bitcoin behaves more like a high-growth tech stock, sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. So the debate really comes down to whether the market's underpricing Bitcoin or if it's correctly pricing in the macro risks.

Either way, the Z-score is definitely worth watching. Current BTC price is around $68.3K, and if Samson Mow's historical patterns hold, there could be some interesting moves ahead. Worth keeping on your radar.