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Data: Currently, approximately 47% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is in loss, but there are no signs of a full-blown panic sell-off.
Deep Tide TechFlow message, March 30, according to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin Impact Index jumped 13 points to 57.4 last week, entering the “high impact” pressure zone, the largest single-week increase since January of this year. Currently, about 47% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in an unrealized loss state.
Long-term holders who have held for more than 6 months were still in profit when the Bitcoin price was above $70,000, but as the price pulled back, more than 4.6 million BTC in their holdings (about 30% of the group’s total holdings) has fallen below their cost basis; the realized loss size last week was the worst since 2023. In its report, CEX.IO noted that similar on-chain signals had appeared in mid-2018 and mid-2022, respectively, after which the price fell by more than 25% as well. In terms of fund flows, the stablecoin net inflow that had previously been about $250 million per day on average has flipped to a net outflow of $292 million; ETFs and miners also shifted from net buying to net selling. However, there are not yet signals of a broad-based panic sell-off.