#创作者冲榜 Gold consolidating with potential breakout, crude oil watch the 100 critical level

Spot Gold:
News: Safe-haven sentiment in the Middle East has eased as Israel's airstrikes on Iran did not trigger large-scale conflict, Iran's retaliation was limited, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming. Market fear index has declined, gold safe-haven buying has diminished, and funds are flowing from precious metals into USD assets. The dollar and US Treasury yields have rebounded strongly, with the dollar index rising to 104.8, and the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing to 4.44% (8-month high). US initial jobless claims data exceeded expectations, reinforcing economic resilience. The Fed's rate cut expectations have been pushed back to after September, and the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress the appeal of zero-yield gold. On the technical side, profit-taking pressure caused gold prices to surge overnight to $4,513, with severe short-term overbought conditions. There is significant long-term trapped positions above $4,500, as bulls take profits and exit, triggering a rapid correction.
Technical analysis:
Last week, gold showed a bottoming rebound pattern, closing the weekly candle with a long lower shadow. Price fluctuations were wide, with a low of $4,099 and a high of $4,602, indicating a concentrated profit-taking from bears. However, the key market move occurred last Monday, followed by several days of consolidation and correction. Based on weekly analysis, the $4,100 support level established during the bottoming is unlikely to be revisited in the short term. The daily chart shows a moderate bullish close, but with weak momentum, indicating a short-term correction. The 1-hour chart formed an inverse head and shoulders breakout; if it does not break above $4,420, it may target $4,595. Today’s focus is on resistance at $4,534-$4,600/50, and support at $4,470-$4,444/16.
Gold intraday trading strategies:
Short positions: Aggressive entry around 4528±5, conservative around 4593±5, stop-loss about $20, target $50/$100!
Long positions: Aggressive entry around 4472±5, conservative around 4430±5, stop-loss about $20, target $50/$100!
WTI Crude Oil:
News: During Monday’s Asian trading session, international crude oil prices continued their strong performance, with US benchmark WTI crude oil rising for the fourth consecutive day and re-breaking the $100/barrel psychological level. The rally is mainly driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially the increased risks to Red Sea shipping safety, raising concerns over global energy supply stability. Technical analysis: On the daily chart, WTI maintains a strong upward trend, with prices forming a new support level after breaking above $100. Key support is near $97.6, with resistance at $106 and the previous high of $113.28. Although momentum has slowed somewhat, the overall trend remains intact. International oil prices continue to trend higher, breaking out of the consolidation range and re-establishing above $100, though bullish momentum is easing. On the 4-hour chart, short-term moving averages remain bullish, with momentum indicators showing signs of plateauing at high levels, but the overall trend remains strong, shifting into high-level consolidation. The market is digesting geopolitical risk premiums, with the short-term rally slowing down. Focus remains on evolving geopolitical developments.
Today’s key levels: resistance at $103.8-$105.8, support at $100.0/$98.0/$97.
Crude oil trading strategies:
Short positions: Aggressive around 102.8±0.2, conservative around 107.8±0.2, stop-loss about 0.6, target near $100!
Long positions: Aggressive around 100.0±0.2, conservative around 97.3±0.2, stop-loss about 0.6, target near $103!
These are for reference only!