Reuters Opinion: If the U.S. military launches a ground attack, Iran could cause widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.

According to Mars Finance, on March 30, Reuters commodity and energy columnist Clyde Russell published an article stating that one month after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, the global supply market for crude oil, refined products, and liquefied natural gas is in a “second worst-case scenario.” At the same time, the article predicts the worst-case scenario of this round of conflict: it would be a situation where the conflict escalates sharply—Iran uses missiles and drones to cause widespread destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including oil pipelines, refineries, processing facilities, and export terminals. The most likely trigger for such actions would be U.S. ground forces attempting to seize and control territory held by Iran, such as the Khark Island oil terminal and several small islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Deploying ground forces is precisely the option that former U.S. President Trump is reportedly considering, and U.S. military forces in the region are also continuously gathering. However, even if a military invasion is tactically successful, if it leads to large-scale destruction of energy infrastructure, it would become meaningless, as this would push an already severe market crisis into an unprecedented global energy disaster. From the perspective of Brent crude futures, the market is still largely betting that the situation will cool down and ultimately restore normal transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent futures rose 2.7%, reporting about $115.55 per barrel, up from $112.57 at the close on March 27. Since closing at $72.48 per barrel on February 27 (the day before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran), Brent prices have increased by 59%.