Past experiences are often unreliable. Take the 2007 commodities bull market as an example—at that time, everyone was focused on China's infrastructure and real estate to judge the market. But as times change, this logic becomes completely obsolete.

Recently, many new entrants have asked: "Why do you say this is a once-in-a-lifetime bull market when China's real estate market has clearly declined?" This question seems reasonable on the surface, but it actually reflects a common mistake—using outdated maps to find today's path.

**The driving forces in the commodities market have long changed**

In the past, the trend of non-ferrous metals was a barometer of China's demand. Now? That logic is completely outdated. Today’s non-ferrous market must be viewed from a global perspective.

The reality is that the relative strength of the U.S. is waning. Since the Gulf War in 1991, the U.S. has not been as dominant, and the dollar's status as the international reserve currency is weakening. This has led more and more countries to realize a simple truth: rather than hoarding dollar bills, it’s better to hold real resources. Mining one ton of ore yields less and less, which is more solid than any printing policy.

At the same time, don’t forget that although China’s real estate market has indeed peaked, India and Pakistan are undertaking massive infrastructure projects. Construction demands in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are also exploding simultaneously. The incremental demand from these emerging markets is enough to support the entire non-ferrous industry, and there’s no need to rely on China’s real estate making a comeback.

**The true growth drivers are in these two areas**

AI and new energy. These are the new engines of the market.

AI data centers are notorious for their high electricity consumption; a single AI server uses three times more copper than traditional servers. Training a GPT-4 level model consumes an astronomical amount of copper. As generative AI continues to penetrate various industries, this high copper demand will only increase. The new energy sector is even more obvious—ranging from lithium batteries to wind power and energy storage systems, the appetite for non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel is growing year by year.

Market rules have changed, and so must our way of thinking. Relying on ideas from decades ago to make bets will only cause you to miss the best opportunities.