Bitcoin breaks the downtrend; strange market signals point to a multi-week rally

Source: Yellow Original Title: Bitcoin breaks the downtrend; strange market signals point to a multi-week rally

Original Link: Bitcoin (BTC) could be forming a cyclical bottom, as a set of high-confidence technical signals —break of the downtrend, volatility collapse, seller exhaustion, and options repositioning— begin to align for the first time since the October drop, according to a new analysis by 10x Research.

The cryptocurrency has been trading sideways for weeks, masking underlying changes that historically precede multi-week recoveries.

The latest chart shows Bitcoin breaking upward a descending trendline that had limited the price since early October, a structural change that analysts consider essential for any sustained reversal.

A technical outlook reset after months of pressure

The October 10 crash and nearly $903 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows following the October 29 FOMC meeting created a deteriorated market structure that persisted through November.

By November 22, 10x Research estimates that seller exhaustion had largely set in, but the price failed to recover, not due to weak fundamentals, but because capital rotation moved into other year-end winning assets.

The chart highlights this restart: a long downtrend, multiple failed rebounds, a stop-loss wipeout similar to capitulation down to around $84,436, and finally a clean break above the trend resistance.

Historically, this pattern has preceded renewed bullish moves when supported by improved volatility dynamics.

Rare alignment of indicators suggests an inflection point

10x Research points to a “rare convergence” of market factors —options positioning, deeply compressed volatility, and reduced selling pressure— that is emerging.

These conditions do not normally guarantee a rally, but they have strong predictive value for bottom formation.

The firm emphasizes that capital has remained on the sidelines not because Bitcoin lacked value, but because “the timing was not right.”

With risk budgets readjusting ahead of the new year, liquidity could re-enter the market just as technical conditions stabilize.

If the break holds, their analysis suggests that a multi-week bullish trend becomes a realistic scenario, marking Bitcoin’s first significant structural improvement since the beginning of Q4.