#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Breaking! US and Israel attack Harek Island, Bitcoin approaches $68,000, downside risk fully exposed?
Crypto market sudden movement! Following the joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran’s Harek Island targets, global geopolitical tensions sharply escalate, causing Bitcoin prices to fluctuate violently, briefly approaching the $68,000 level, showing a “rise and fall” pattern.
As of press time, Bitcoin’s 24-hour high reached $70,351.46, the low dipped to $68,071.96, and the current quote is $68,295.14, with bulls and bears locked in a fierce battle.
More importantly, the latest analysis from Glassnode issued a warning: resistance around $72k continues to build, and once the rebound momentum weakens, Bitcoin could face significant downside risk. How will this geopolitical conflict-driven crypto market turbulence unfold?
Breaking news: US and Israel attack Harek Island, geopolitical tensions trigger market volatility
Crypto news outlet CoinWeb reports, citing US officials via Axios, that the US military has carried out precise strikes on military targets on Harek Island. This sudden military action instantly intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, becoming the main trigger for crypto market volatility.
Many may not be aware of Harek Island’s strategic importance — located in the northwest Persian Gulf, it is Iran’s largest crude oil export hub, responsible for about 90% of the country’s oil exports, and is considered Iran’s “lifeline” economically. The island hosts large oil tanker berths, storage facilities, and is a key deployment point for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This US-Israel attack, seemingly targeting military objectives, actually constrains Iran’s energy lifeline, likely provoking a strong Iranian counterattack, possibly escalating the Strait of Hormuz situation, which could impact global energy and financial markets. As a highly volatile asset class, cryptocurrencies are naturally among the first to be affected.
Reviewing historical geopolitical conflicts’ impact on crypto markets reveals some patterns:
In early stages of geopolitical tension, risk aversion rises, and Bitcoin often experiences short-term volatility, but this support usually doesn’t last — during the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Bitcoin surged 20%, then fell into a prolonged decline due to Fed rate hikes; during the Iran-Israel conflict in 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility was only ±3%, showing institutional hedging effects. However, this direct attack on Harek Island, a core energy asset, raises the risk of escalation, leading to more intense disturbances in the crypto market.
Market analysis: 24-hour intense volatility, approaching $68,000
Following the sudden news of the US and Israel attacking Harek Island, Bitcoin’s price experienced a “rise-fall-oscillation” pattern within 24 hours, reflecting market caution. Key data:
- 24-hour high: $70,351.46 (initial risk-averse capital inflow pushed prices higher)
- 24-hour low: $68,071.96 (concerns over escalation and technical resistance caused rapid decline)
- Current price: $68,295.14 (as of press time, price remains in a low-range oscillation, with bulls and bears stalemated)
From the market’s performance, the safe-haven support from this geopolitical event is limited. Bitcoin surged to $70,351.46 but quickly retreated near $68,000, failing to break through decisively. Behind this are concerns over escalation, with investors hesitant to chase gains, and technical resistance levels quietly accumulating, becoming the main obstacle to upward movement. Glassnode’s latest analysis further reveals potential market risks.
Technical warning: Glassnode signals, resistance at $72k prominent, high downside risk
While the market reacts to the Harek Island attack, Glassnode analyzed Bitcoin options Gamma exposure, providing a “cold shower” to the crypto market and clearly warning of downside risks. It states that Bitcoin is currently in a narrow negative Gamma zone between approximately $65k and $70k — meaning that within this range, traders’ hedging activities significantly amplify short-term price swings, creating a “speed-up” effect on both upward and downward moves.
In simple terms, market stability is extremely poor. Any disturbance — whether geopolitical escalation or capital flow shifts — could trigger sharp Bitcoin price swings. More importantly, resistance around $72k continues to build, while support levels are relatively weak.
The recent geopolitical conflict’s impact shows that Bitcoin surged to $70,351.46 (near the $72k resistance) but quickly fell back, confirming the resistance’s suppressive effect. Glassnode warns that if the rebound momentum weakens, downside risks will rise sharply, with potential further declines toward $65k or even lower.
Additionally, recent market behavior indicates that the inflow of safe-haven funds into crypto due to geopolitical tensions is less than 5%, far below traditional safe assets, implying that the support from the Harek Island attack is unlikely to be sustained. Technical pressures will dominate the subsequent trend.
Short-term and medium-term outlook: oscillation with greater downside risk
Considering geopolitical tensions, Glassnode’s technical analysis, and current price action, Bitcoin’s future trend can be divided into short-term and medium-term phases, with key conclusions:
- Short-term (1-7 days): dual geopolitical and technical battles, increased volatility
- Medium-term (1-4 weeks): resistance hard to break, downside risks prominent
Short-term (1-7 days): intense volatility driven by geopolitical and technical factors
Bitcoin is expected to remain highly volatile within a range of approximately $67,000 to $70,000. On one hand, the attack on Harek Island may escalate geopolitical tensions further — Iran has explicitly warned that if energy infrastructure is attacked, it will destroy all US-related energy facilities in the region. An escalation could trigger a new round of risk aversion, temporarily supporting Bitcoin prices. On the other hand, Glassnode’s negative Gamma zone, resistance at $72k, and weak support levels below will continue to suppress upward movement. Once risk aversion subsides, prices could sharply decline. Key levels to watch:
- Upward resistance: $70,500 (near the 24-hour high; if not broken, rebound momentum weakens)
- Downward support: $68,000 (near the 24-hour low; if broken, further decline toward $66,000–$67,000)
Medium-term (1-4 weeks): resistance difficult to break, downside risks increase
In the medium term, Bitcoin’s downside risk outweighs potential gains. The core reasons include:
1. Resistance around $72k continues to build, and the negative Gamma zone amplifies volatility, making effective breakthroughs unlikely.
2. Geopolitical uncertainty persists, but institutional hedging support is limited. If tensions stabilize, risk aversion may fade, leading to capital outflows from crypto.
3. Historical data shows that crypto market volatility caused by geopolitical conflicts is usually short-lived; long-term trends tend to revert to technical and capital fundamentals. Current technical signals are pessimistic. If the rebound weakens, downside risks will dominate, with potential declines toward $63k–$65k. A sudden escalation (e.g., Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz) could cause a short-term rebound but unlikely to reverse the overall downtrend, especially as rising energy prices may trigger inflation fears and impact global monetary policies, indirectly suppressing crypto assets.
Risk warning (must read): The current crypto market is heavily influenced by geopolitical conflicts and technical pressures, with increased volatility. Be vigilant of the following risks, act rationally, and avoid blindly following:
- Escalation of geopolitical tensions: Further US-Iran confrontation could trigger global financial turmoil, causing Bitcoin to fluctuate sharply or even plummet.
- Technical correction risk: Resistance at $72k is hard to break; negative Gamma amplifies volatility. If the rebound weakens, Bitcoin may undergo a phase correction, testing $65k or lower.
- Capital outflow risk: If risk aversion diminishes or institutional profit-taking occurs, Bitcoin prices could continue to weaken.
- Energy market volatility transmission: The attack on Harek Island may trigger a surge in global oil prices, affecting inflation expectations and monetary policies, indirectly impacting crypto assets.
- Liquidation risk: Market volatility is high, and high leverage can easily trigger liquidations. Avoid excessive leverage and control positions.
Summary: Beware of oscillating downward trend, avoid blindly chasing highs
Although the sudden attack on Harek Island briefly triggered risk aversion and pushed Bitcoin to $70,351.46, it did not change the core market pattern — the negative Gamma zone, resistance at $72k, and weak support levels below all suggest that Bitcoin’s rebound is unlikely to be sustained, and downside risks are fully exposed.
Bitcoin is now approaching the $68,000 level, with bulls and bears in fierce competition. The most rational approach for investors is to “wait and see, proceed cautiously”:
- In the short term, avoid blindly chasing gains; focus on key levels’ breakthroughs.
- In the medium term, remain alert to downside risks, avoid high leverage, control positions, and wait for clearer market signals before gradually deploying.
Geopolitical developments and technical pressures will jointly influence Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Every oscillation tests investor patience. Respect the market, make rational decisions, and only then can you avoid risks and seize opportunities in the crypto wave.