Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking above $75,000 in April is 77%, and the probability of breaking above $80,000 is 24%; the probability of dropping to below $65,000 is 30%. Deribit data shows that the max pain（maximum pain）price for Bitcoin options expiring on April 24 is $70,000, with a notional amount of approximately $6.98 billion.

Gate News message: During the 17th plenary session of the China Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Alliance on April 10, the Security Governance Committee of the China Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Alliance officially released the 《OpenClaw Class Intelligent Agent Deployment Risk Management Guidelines》. The guidelines focus on enterprises’ pain points in risk prevention and control during the process of technical implementation, and propose an overall security deployment framework and self-check standards covering the entire lifecycle from deployment, to use, to decommissioning. It aims to help intelligent agents move from “able to deploy” to “secure deployment, standardized use, and ongoing governance,” providing practical guidance for enterprises to carry out technical deployments in a compliant and standardized manner.

Bitcoin's bear market has lasted for nearly six months. The market may be entering a "time pain" phase, with long-term holders making up about 80% of the supply. Glassnode believes the bear market is nearing the bottom, but it still needs several months of sideways consolidation.

2026-03-27 10:30 to 10:45 (UTC), BTC’s return rate was -1.28%, the price range was between 66,806.9 and 67,771.5 USDT, and the amplitude reached 1.42%. Short-term volatility was pronounced, market attention increased, and trading activity intensified. The main driving force behind this unusual move was the quarterly options expiry in the derivatives market. The concentrated size reached $1.416 billion, involving open interest of nearly 40% of the entire platform. Since the options’ “maximum pain point” was higher than the spot price, institutions and market makers conducted large-scale “delta hedging” to balance exposure, thereby amplifying market fluctuations.

Greeks.live released the options expiration data for March 27: 68,000 BTC and 370,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.56 for both, and the maximum pain points were $74,000 and $2,250 respectively. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin trading activity remains low, market confidence is lacking, and expectations for improvement in the second quarter are present.

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam said March 27 is the quarterly settlement date. Bitcoin and Ethereum each have 68,000 and 370,000 options expiring, respectively, with Put Call Ratios of 0.56. Bitcoin’s biggest pain point is $74,000, with a notional value of $13.0 billion; Ethereum’s biggest pain point is $2,250, with a notional value of $2.12 billion. Options rollovers are active, and VRP is rising.

On March 26, 2026, from 17:45 to 18:00 (UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a -0.69% return within 15 minutes, with a price range of $68,385.8 to $68,956.2 USDT and an amplitude of 0.83%. Short-term volatility increased, market attention rapidly heightened, showing concentrated downward pressure. The main driver of this movement was the approaching options expiration, with related position investors adjusting short-term holdings in response to the "maximum pain" zone ($75,000–$80,000), combined with the put/call ratio of options.

BlockBeats News, March 26 — OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger announced, "Discrawl 0.2.0 has been released, with a significant improvement in synchronization speed. I use it every day to understand the biggest pain points in the OpenClaw Discord community."

Greeks.live reports that tomorrow will see the largest options settlement of the first quarter this year, with nearly 40% of options expiring. The biggest pain point for BTC is at $75,000, with low put option trading volume and overall sentiment leaning bearish. IV Crush is imminent, short-term option buyers are at a disadvantage, while institutions are building positions in future bullish options through rollovers.

Greeks.live on the X platform pointed out that March 27 will mark the largest options expiration of Q1 2026, with about 40% of options expiring. The biggest pain point for BTC is $75,000, and put option trading volume is low. Volatility warning indicates that IV Crush is approaching, and short-term options buyers are at a disadvantage. Whales are rolling over positions on Deribit, building large positions in out-of-the-money call options for June and September.