The US stock market is forcing a dead end.

After the release of the US non-farm payrolls data last night, there was a major earthquake in the global financial markets. Not only did non-farm employment rise by 114,000, weaker than the expected 175,000, but the key is that the unemployment rate soared to 4.3%, well above expectations, triggering the so-called ‘Sahm rule’ and sending the strongest signal of a recession in the US economy.

The Sam rule is an empirical law: when the average unemployment rate for three consecutive months exceeds the previous year’s low point by 0.5%, the US economy will inevitably fall into recession. How accurate is this indicator? It’s almost foolproof, never failing. The chart below shows the correlation between the Sam rule indicator (blue curve) and US economic recessions (gray vertical lines) since 1949.

From the reaction of the US stock market and global markets, people’s fear of an economic recession overwhelmed the joy of the upcoming rate cut by the Fed. On Friday, the US stock market closed with a big dump, the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, the Nasdaq had a big dump of 2.4%, and the Dow Jones fell by nearly 610 points.

Although Powell raised the white flag at the end of July’s rate-setting meeting, he did not make an immediate decision to cut interest rates, but instead deferred the rate cut expectations to September.

Just two days later, the situation changed dramatically. Unexpected employment data perfectly matched Powell’s “preparation.” However, no matter how the US stocks are forced to death, it is impossible to turn back time and let Powell reopen the interest rate meeting at the end of July, announcing an immediate interest rate cut in August, which is urgent.

Dubbed by netizens as the ‘low blood sugar vs. high blood pressure’ financial game between China and the United States, it has finally endured the eagle’s collapse after 15 years of hard work and loneliness, and is about to see the dawn. The offshore RMB sharply appreciated against the US dollar, with USD/CNH breaking through the 7.2 mark. Vaguely, the charge has already been sounded. The loud sound of the horn tore through the thick darkness. The east is gradually lit with dawn.

Last year, EdTech Chain wrote a trilogy about the final battle.

The first article, ‘Artificial Prosperity,’ points out that the false economic prosperity that the United States has gained from helicopter money will encounter excessive savings depletion at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Economic recession has become a foregone conclusion. The second article, ‘Cross-Mountain Bullfighting,’ discusses China’s counter-cyclical adjustment in response to the US interest rate hike, actively bursting the asset bubble, and resolutely defending the Exchange Rate stability, which will inevitably lead to global capital outflow from the US and become a driving force for the US towards collapse. The third article, ‘Contest at Mount Hua,’ focuses on how the US interest rate hike cycle cooperates with the excessive issuance of US debt, trapping and reaping the wealth of people around the world. China seizes the opportunity of the US dollar contraction, lending the earned dollars to countries on the brink of collapse and agreeing that they will repay in RMB in the future, thereby breaking the classic script of leverage, Get Liquidated, and bankruptcy that countries should play in the US interest rate hike cycle as usual, and turning it into a new script where people around the world sit back and wait for the US to blow up with high interest rates.

What we want is not the real collapse of the United States, but to stage a collapse drama. Once the collapse drama is performed, the US stocks will be forced to death, the US economy will decline, and a ‘hard landing’ will occur, resulting in a complete collapse. As soon as the Federal Reserve is afraid, it will stop the magic of high interest rates and quickly lower interest rates.

The curtain rises, the curtain falls, who is the guest?

Seeing is believing. In fact, from the constant chatter of many celebrities in the Chinese community about the continuous rise of the US stock market and the phenomenon of ‘regularly investing in Nasdaq’ in the comment sections, one can predict that the US stock market is about to reach its peak. After all, such a massive bubble cannot be sustained by these small suckers who keep dumb buying and filling the lines. This is similar to when the elderly vegetable vendors started rushing into the A-share market, indicating that the A-share market was reaching its peak.

Remember, the mathematical principle of dumb buying is that only when larger funds and players enter the market for dumb buying can the market continue to pump. If a market falls to small players for dumb buying by large institutions, then the next step can only be a disastrous drop and harvesting.

Why can BTC keep rising throughout the cycle? It’s because speculators dumb buy for early adopters, companies dumb buy for speculators, ETFs dumb buy for companies, and sovereign nations will dumb buy for everyone in the future…

Stop foolishly believing in the nonsense that ‘the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the US stock market collapses’. This is simply turning cause and effect upside down and distorting the truth. It is clear that it is the US stock market that is forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand, and they have no choice but to cut interest rates and inject liquidity to rescue the market.

The burning beauty of the US stock market, and the secretive Federal Reserve, are like fren above, the young boys and girls who are not yet lovers, shyly probing each other, neither daring to take that first step. It is still the US stock market that makes the first move and breaks the ice. Once the ice is broken, the Federal Reserve will no longer need to hide. The two youthful and pure bodies will then naturally come together.