Polymarket "Probability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel by May 15 falls to 37%, down 45% over the past 24 hours"

Gate News report, April 7, the probability of Polymarket “U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 15” has fallen to 37%, down 45% over the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of the event contract for “When will the U.S. and Iran ceasefire” has already surpassed $107 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by the specified date (11:59 p.m. Eastern Time) (defined as a publicly announced agreement and with both sides consenting to stop direct military actions), then the market will be determined as “Yes,” otherwise “No.” A “formal ceasefire agreement” requires the U.S. government and the Iranian government to explicitly and publicly confirm that both sides have agreed to stop military hostilities toward each other, or to be confirmed by overwhelming consensus reported through the media that a formal ceasefire agreement has been reached.

U.S. Vice President Vance previously reiterated that the deadline for Iran is Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (Wednesday at 8:00 a.m. Beijing Time), and said that Halk Island does not mean a strategic shift. According to two U.S. officials, before the deadline set by Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched strikes earlier on Tuesday against military targets on Halk Island. One official said the U.S. struck more than 50 targets on the island. The officials said the strike took place early Tuesday morning Eastern Time, and the targets did not include oil infrastructure. Trump has set Tuesday evening as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or else it will face the risk of devastating strikes on energy infrastructure.