According to PolyBeats monitoring, on prediction market Polymarket, five smart money accounts have collectively invested $65,400 in a bet that the event “Will the U.S. military enter Iran before May?” will be “Yes.” Currently, the probability of “Yes” for this event is 51%.
Trump is seeking a one-month ceasefire and has submitted a “15-point plan” to Tehran. This has led the market to short-term bets that the Iran conflict may ease after weeks of tension. Interestingly, after this news broke, the probabilities of both a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before April and U.S. military entry into Iran before April increased on Polymarket.
Today, The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon has ordered about 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, including the division’s first combat brigade and its headquarters units. Currently, approximately 50,000 U.S. troops are in the Middle East.
Note: Based on their past trading patterns, this trader does not necessarily bet on whether the event will actually happen; they may open positions and close them for profit or loss at certain points.
Accounts:
0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7
0x38692cead875c0cd862052efbff8f6add7310e3c
0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0x8c80d213c0cbad777d06ee3f58f6ca4bc03102c3
Total investment: $65,400
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