Gate News reports that on March 18, according to PolyBeats monitoring, four smart money addresses invested a total of $97,000 on the prediction market Polymarket, betting “No” on the question “Will the Iranian regime fall before June 30?” Currently, the probability of “Yes” is 28%.
According to settlement rules, if before June 30, Iran’s core ruling structures (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards, etc.) are dissolved, become non-operational, or are fundamentally replaced by a different regime, resulting in the loss of effective control over the majority of the population, the market will settle as “Yes.” Routine political events (such as elections, reforms, leadership succession), as well as internal power changes within the core structures, do not meet the criteria. If only parts of the territory are lost or rebel groups challenge the government, as long as the current regime still governs most of the population, the market will not settle as “Yes.”
Analysts who believe the regime will fall point out that Iran is currently under direct military strikes targeting key military and energy facilities, along with long-term economic sanctions. Additionally, the long-term concealment of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s successor, Muqtada, has sparked speculation about serious factional struggles or even loss of control among the top leadership. On the other hand, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) still firmly controls domestic security and military forces, and the regime continues to conduct effective geopolitical maneuvers through control of the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining its survival resources.
Yesterday (March 17), Iran’s official confirmed that Ali Larijani, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike, was the de facto top decision-maker after Khamenei’s death for a period, responsible for coordinating conflicts between President Raisi (a moderate) and the IRGC hardliners, as well as leading diplomatic negotiations with the US and Israel. Several analysts suggest that his death may accelerate the public exposure of internal fractures.
The four addresses are: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101, 0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050b, 0xa8948e141de09e8ed204681e4beb4d2473075324, 0x7744bfd749a70020d16a1fcbac1d064761c9999e, with a total investment of $97,000.
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