Gate News reports that on March 18, the Federal Reserve will announce its March 2026 interest rate decision, with expectations to keep the target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive meeting with stable rates. The market generally considers the decision to be a foregone conclusion, but investors remain focused on the updated dot plot and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, especially regarding inflation and future rate cuts.
Data shows that core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose to 3.1% in February, well above the Fed’s 2% target, leaving policymakers with little reason to cut rates. The surge in oil prices driven by Middle East conflicts, particularly the US-Iran tensions, further limits room for rate cuts. According to Polymarket, traders now estimate only a 30% chance of a rate cut this year, with a 23% chance of no cut, significantly lower than expectations before the Iran conflict escalated. Futures markets suggest the Fed may consider adjusting monetary policy only in September or October.
Market strategist Kathy Lien noted that Powell might adopt a cautious tone during the press conference, balancing concerns over inflation and employment pressures. Former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson also stated that the committee will be very cautious when describing the economic outlook, with inflation remaining the primary concern.
Political pressure is also significant. Trump has publicly called for Powell to cut rates, but the Justice Department has hindered his plan to replace Powell, with nominee Kevin Wash still awaiting Senate confirmation. Powell’s term runs until May next year, making this meeting his penultimate rate decision as Fed Chair.
Cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, have reacted to these developments. Recently, prices briefly surged to $75,000, but traders’ expectations for multiple rate cuts have noticeably decreased. This rate decision and Powell’s statements will directly influence the prices of risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
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