On February 6, news reports indicate that after a 24-hour sharp decline, XRP’s price quickly rebounded from around $1.11 to the $1.30 level, prompting market discussions about whether the bottom has been reached. However, based on historical cycles and on-chain data, this rebound appears more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal signal.
Recently, XRP broke below the long-term downtrend channel formed since mid-2025 and temporarily lost the “Realized Price”—a key cost basis (currently around $1.47). This indicator represents the average holding cost of all circulating tokens. When the current price is below this level, most holders are at a loss. In mid-2022, XRP also fell below this line but did not immediately reverse; instead, it traded sideways below it for nearly two years until a strong rally at the end of 2024.
The current discount margin, while not as severe as in previous declines, still ranges from 18% to 25%. This indicates that market pressure is building but has not yet fully cleared sentiment. The long-term holder NUPL has dropped to about -0.19, showing that most long-term holdings are in loss territory. Historically, cycle bottoms often require this indicator to decline further before stabilizing.
On-chain behavior also leans cautious. Since early February, the Spent Output Age indicator, which measures dormant token activity, has surged significantly, indicating large amounts of long-held tokens are moving. Such phenomena typically occur during distribution phases rather than genuine accumulation zones. Even after the price rebound, this indicator remains high, suggesting selling pressure has not been fully released.
Structurally, XRP is still operating below the broken channel. The next key support level is around $0.93; if this area is lost, historical support could shift down to $0.52. On the upside, only regaining above $1.47 would help restore market confidence, with medium-term improvement requiring a break above $1.69 and $1.97.
Until token liquidity cools and on-chain losses are gradually absorbed, any rebound may face new selling pressure. The market still needs patience for a true structural reset.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
XRP Price Consolidates as Market Awaits Breakout Signal
Key Insights:
XRP consolidation between $1.20 and $1.45 signals a buildup phase as reduced volatility and balanced pressure prepare the market for a breakout.
An open interest drop from $10 billion to $2.57 billion reflects a leverage reset, indicating a healthier derivatives structure and r
CryptoNewsLand12h ago
XRP Price Nears $1.50 Breakout as Triangle Tightens
Key Insights:
XRP consolidates within a symmetrical triangle, with tightening price action suggesting a potential breakout toward higher resistance levels as bullish momentum continues building.
Supertrend turning green and MACD rising indicate increasing buying pressure, supporting a bullis
CryptoNewsLand13h ago
Altseason Pump: Can Ripple Altcoin XRP Replicate 350x Returns Same as 2018 in 2026?
Altseason pump: can Ripple XRP replicate 350x returns?
Analyst expects the same returns as from 2018 in 2026 for XRP.
Can the price of XRP set new ATH prices this year.
Expectations for altseason continue to grow as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices continue to maintain promising prices
CryptoNewsLand17h ago
XRP Market Shows Leverage Reset Amid Divergence Between Derivatives Pressure and Spot Strength
Gate News message, April 26 — XRP's market structure is displaying signs of significant repositioning, with data showing a complex divergence between derivatives and spot activity. According to market analysis, leveraged longs on major CEX perpetuals are being unwound even as spot price remains
GateNews17h ago
XRP Spot ETF Records $6.44M Net Inflows, Bitwise XRP ETF Leads
Gate News message, April 25 — XRP spot ETFs posted net inflows of $6.44 million on April 24, according to SoSoValue data. Bitwise XRP ETF was the sole contributor, recording the entire $6.44 million in daily inflows and bringing its historical total net inflows to $426 million.
XRP spot ETF
GateNews19h ago
Bitwise XRP ETF Leads Market With $426M in Cumulative Inflows as XRP ETF Assets Surpass $1B
Gate News message, April 25 — Bitwise's XRP ETF has emerged as the clear market leader in the growing XRP-linked investment product space, pulling in consistent net inflows while competing funds struggle to sustain momentum. According to market tracker Xaif Crypto, Bitwise's XRP ETF recorded net inf
GateNews04-25 19:51
