XRP Bull and Bear Signals Intertwined: Korean Exchange Reserves Plummet, Spot ETF Experiences Major Outflows

Entering early 2026, XRP’s trend shows a clear pattern of bulls and bears intertwined. On one hand, XRP reserves on major Korean exchanges are rapidly declining, with significant on-chain whale trading activity; on the other hand, the US spot XRP ETF has experienced its first net outflow since launch, further diversifying market opinions on the short-term trend.

Data shows that in the first week of 2026, XRP reserves on Korea’s two major domestic CEXs decreased significantly. After analyzing addresses holding over 1 million XRP, it was found that since December 31, 2025, exchanges have collectively reduced about 22 million XRP. Among them, Korea’s leading CEX decreased by approximately 40 million, the second-largest CEX by about 20 million, while another mainstream CEX increased by roughly 25 to 30 million during the same period. This structural change is highly similar to the fund flow pattern before XRP’s significant rally at the end of 2024.

Historically, Korean exchanges have been an important hub for XRP price discovery. In November 2024, when XRP began a sustained outflow from Korea’s top CEXs, its price rapidly surged from $0.50 to over $3 within a few months. Therefore, the current reserve decline is interpreted by some market participants as a sign that long-term holders are shifting to off-chain storage, reducing short-term selling pressure.

On-chain data also supports this increased activity. On January 6, the number of whale transactions recorded on the XRP Ledger rose to 2,802, reaching a three-month high, with a daily increase of nearly 30%. Generally, frequent large address rebalancing often indicates that the market is about to enter a phase of increased volatility.

However, signals from the institutional level are more cautious. On January 7, the US spot XRP ETF experienced its first single-day net outflow since its listing in November 2025, totaling $40.8 million. Among them, the redemption of TOXR launched by 21Shares was most notable, while Grayscale’s GXRP saw a slight inflow. Although the overall ETF net inflow remains around $1.2 billion, this change has sparked discussions about whether institutional demand is temporarily cooling down.

It is important to note that a decline in exchange reserves does not necessarily lead to price increases. Historical data shows that in mid-2024, XRP reserves were also low, but the price traded sideways around $0.50 for several months. Additionally, broader monitoring indicates that global exchanges still hold about 14 billion XRP, and supply is not truly tight.

Overall, XRP is currently oscillating around $2.30, below its 2025 high. The outflow of retail funds from Korean exchanges and active whale trading contrast with the first net outflow of ETF funds. Whether activity in the Korean market can offset the slowdown in institutional funds will remain a key variable for XRP’s price trend in January 2026.