Tom Lee bullish on 2026: Once the ISM returns to the expansion zone, it may trigger a new cycle for Bitcoin and risk assets

Well-known Wall Street strategist and co-founder of Fundstrat Tom Lee recently stated on CNBC that he remains highly optimistic about the market outlook for 2026 and believes that the macroeconomy may be at a critical turning point. One of his core judgments is based on the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is regarded as a “weather vane” for the U.S. economy.

Currently, the ISM PMI has been below 50 for over three consecutive years, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a long-term contraction. The latest published figure is 47.9, still in the downturn zone. However, market focus is on whether the ISM can re-enter the 50 “line of distinction” between expansion and contraction in the future. In Tom Lee’s view, once the ISM returns to the expansion zone, market structure and capital preferences could undergo significant changes.

When the ISM index exceeds 50, it typically signifies that the manufacturing sector is entering an expansion phase, business confidence is rising, capital expenditures are increasing, and overall economic activity is improving. In such an environment, investors tend to reduce defensive positions and increase allocations to risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee believes that Bitcoin is one of the potential biggest beneficiaries of this macro shift.

Historically, there has been a clear cyclical resonance between the ISM and Bitcoin. After the pandemic shock in 2020, the ISM index recovered rapidly and entered the expansion zone, followed by a significant rise in Bitcoin prices from 2020 to 2021, with risk appetite becoming the market’s main theme. Tom Lee points out that the current environment structurally resembles that period, including still-loose global liquidity, institutional funds continuously seeking high-yield assets, and the overall penetration rate of cryptocurrencies remaining relatively low, leaving room for long-term growth.

Additionally, institutional participation continues to deepen, with long-term capital gradually entering Bitcoin and the crypto markets, making them more sensitive to macro improvements. As ISM data becomes one of the key indicators tracked by traders and macro investors, any sustained upward signals could be viewed as a “trigger” for a new wave of risk asset rallies.

Overall, Tom Lee’s optimism for 2026 is not emotion-driven but based on macro data, historical cycles, and liquidity logic. If the ISM successfully enters the expansion zone, it could become an important variable in changing the market landscape, and Bitcoin and other risk assets are expected to regain investor favor in a new economic cycle.