As the hopes for the altcoin season gradually fade, Bitcoin's dominance reaches a new high.

Gate news, key indicators predicting the altcoin season - such as Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) and the altcoin season index - continued to show a negative trend in June. These developments make the possibility of a strong rebound in alts increasingly unlikely, and investors seem to be restructuring their altcoin portfolios to drop risk.

As of now, Bitcoin’s dominance—a measure of Bitcoin’s market value relative to the entire cryptocurrency market—has reached a new high in 2025. This index is currently over 65%, marking the highest level since February 2021.

TradingView data shows that Bitcoin’s dominance has risen for seven consecutive quarters without any drop. This trend reflects the strong long-term confidence of both retail and institutional investors in Bitcoin.

Analyst Rekt Capital boldly predicts that Bitcoin’s dominance may soar by 71% in the near future. If this happens, the altcoin market could see a significant drop. A similar situation occurred in February 2025, when Bitcoin’s dominance peaked, leading to a sharp decline in many major alts.

(Source: Rekt Capital)

“Bitcoin’s dominance is now just 5.5% away from 71%. Alts won’t drop to zero, but they may react like they did in February 2025,” predicted Rekt Capital.

In February 2025, the market cap of alts dropped from $1.4 trillion to $1 trillion. If Rekt Capital’s prediction comes true, the market cap of alts could fall below $700 billion.

CoinBureau co-founder Nic also believes that Bitcoin’s dominance could rise by 70%, close to Rekt Capital’s prediction. RealVision founder and CEO Raoul Pal shares the same view, stating that in any pullback, the drop of alts will exceed that of Bitcoin.

Tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate, with airstrikes and President Trump’s threats to increase military deployments leading to unpredictable market volatility. While many leaders in the crypto industry remain optimistic, this belief does not apply to alts.

As of June 23, the alts season index has dropped to 12, the lowest level in two years. This index tracks whether the performance of alts over the past 90 days has surpassed that of Bitcoin. A reading of 75 or higher typically indicates an “altcoin season.” However, the current reading is far from reaching that threshold.

Nic commented: “If you believe in the alts season indicator, this is the farthest we have been from alts season in the past year.”

However, renowned analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out an interesting pattern. In recent years, the altcoin season index typically bottoms out in June or July. This shows a seasonal trend: investors tend to allocate funds to Bitcoin in early summer and then possibly shift back to alts in July or August.

Analyst 0xNobler also agrees with the view that the altcoin season typically begins in summer. This observation is consistent with earlier predictions that Bitcoin’s dominance may continue to rise to 71%, before entering a drop.

Therefore, these analysts believe that despite the sudden fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions, patience remains key for altcoin investors.

However, a recent report pointed out several reasons that the “alts winter” will last longer. Even if the alts winter really comes, not all projects in the current market can benefit from it.