J.P. Morgan Chase on Thursday downplayed geopolitical concerns and maintained its base expectation that oil prices will be in the range of $60 to $65 for the rest of 2025, with oil prices expected to be $60 in 2026, but said that some worst-case scenarios could cause oil prices to soar to twice the above levels. JPMorgan said the geopolitical risk premium has been at least partially reflected in current oil prices, which are just under $70 and about $4 above the estimated fair value of $66 in June. However, in the event of some worst-case scenario, in which Iranian oil exports fall by 2.1 million barrels per day, the impact on supply could widen. Attention has been focused on the risk that a broader Middle East conflict could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or trigger a retaliatory response from the region’s major oil producers. “With such severe consequences, we estimate that oil prices could soar to the $120-$130 per barrel range.”
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