Bitcoin $109,000 life-and-death battle! AI bubble tech stocks crash, on-chain data warns of a pullback.

Bitcoin is currently trading above $109,000, but due to technical indicators and market concerns, it may face downward pressure. The tech sector is performing poorly, especially large companies heavily investing in artificial intelligence, threatening the stability of Crypto Assets. The Hyblock liquidation heatmap shows potential negative targets in the short term, while the actual price for Bitcoin short-term holders at $113,100 becomes the bull-bear dividing line.

Bitcoin bullish sentiment exhausted, price volatility intense

The price of Bitcoin remains stable under increasing pressure. Despite the overall market being tumultuous, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable over the past 24 hours. However, this calm may not be a long-term solution, as many technical and fundamental factors suggest that Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its current price level.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated dramatically, dropping to a low of $106,800 during trading on October 30. This is mainly due to the weak performance of traditional stock markets. Even more puzzling is the fact that despite bullish events such as the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the end of quantitative tightening policies, and progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations, the price of Bitcoin still declined. This inevitably leads many to ponder what factors are necessary to drive the price of Bitcoin up.

This phenomenon of “good news fully priced in” is not uncommon in financial markets. When all positive factors have been priced in by the market in advance, the actual news release often becomes an opportunity for profit-taking. Bitcoin surged at the beginning of the year due to expectations of Trump returning to the White House and crypto-friendly policies, but as these expectations gradually materialized, the price began to come under pressure. The market is looking for new reasons to rise, and until they are found, the technical weakness may dominate the short-term trend.

AI investment bubble concerns affecting Bitcoin

Bitcoin struggles to gain market recognition, while major tech stocks, especially the “Big Seven,” have performed poorly. Despite Meta and Microsoft exceeding profit expectations in the third quarter, their stock prices fell by 10% and 3%, respectively. Where is the problem? Investors are concerned about the massive investments in the artificial intelligence infrastructure sector.

Meta announced that it will invest between $70 billion and $72 billion in capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence, while Alphabet is expected to invest $93 billion, raising concerns about a potential speculative bubble in the artificial intelligence market. These astronomical investment commitments did not boost stock prices after the earnings report was released; instead, they triggered a sell-off. When companies pour billions of dollars into areas with unverified profit models, the market begins to question when these investments will translate into actual returns.

These concerns have also spread to risk assets such as Bitcoin, as the price of Bitcoin remains closely related to indices dominated by tech stocks like Nasdaq when the market is under pressure. The fact that Bitcoin and the stock market are both falling indicates that many people still consider Crypto Assets to be a high-risk investment, potentially affected by changes in sentiment in traditional financial markets.

From a macro perspective, concerns about the AI investment bubble not only affect tech stocks but also shake the confidence of the entire risk asset market. Investors are beginning to reassess the rationality of overvalued assets, and this scrutiny naturally extends to Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has no direct relation to the AI industry, in an environment of declining risk appetite, all high-volatility assets face selling pressure.

103,800 USD support level serves as the final line of defense

The liquidation heatmap of Hyblock shows that there may be negative targets in the short term, leading to increased selling pressure. The most important short-term support level is at $103,800, where liquidity is relatively concentrated. If this support level is broken, long-term liquidation data indicates that the next major support area is around $100,500 and $98,600.

The liquidation heatmap is an important indicator in the derivatives market, showing the accumulated forced liquidation orders at different price levels. When the price reaches these levels, it triggers a chain liquidation, causing the price to accelerate in that direction. The liquidity concentration at $103,800 means that once Bitcoin falls below the current level, a large number of long positions will be forced to liquidate, further driving the price down.

Bitcoin Key Support Levels and Downside Potential:

103,800 USD: The most direct liquidity pool in the short term, breaking through will trigger the first wave of chain liquidation.

100,000 USD: A dual defense line of psychological barrier and technical support; falling below this will confirm a bear market structure.

98,600 USD: The main support zone indicated by long-term liquidation data.

88,000 USD: Active actual price, representing the cost basis of the current supply in use.

If Bitcoin breaks below $100,000, the next significant support level on the blockchain is the active actual price of $88,000, which is the cost basis of the supply currently in use. This pullback indicates that the price will drop significantly by 19% from the current level, but this is consistent with Bitcoin's performance during past bull market cycles. In historical bull markets, Bitcoin often experiences deep pullbacks of 20% to 30%, which are usually healthy and build momentum for the next wave of upward movement.

Short holder actual price 113,100 USD, becomes the bull-bear dividing line

(Source: Trading View)

Bulls are increasingly concerned about the actual price of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin, currently at $113,100. This figure represents the average cost basis of individuals who purchased Bitcoin over the past 155 days. In the past, it has also been a key dividing line between bullish and bearish market patterns.

Bitcoin briefly recovered to this level during the recent surge, but has now fallen back below it. Analysis from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin has failed to close above this level for two consecutive weeks, indicating a higher risk of further declines. The significance of the STH actual price lies in the fact that it represents the cost basis for short-term speculators. When the price falls below this level, these holders face unrealized losses and often choose to cut their losses and exit.

To regain upward momentum, Bitcoin must consistently close above the short-term holder's actual price of $113,100. Ideally, the weekly closing price should be above this level to indicate a strong return. Only when Bitcoin reestablishes itself at this level can the current bearish narrative be changed, attracting new buying interest.

Historically, the actual price of STH plays a key role in the transition between bull and bear markets. In a bull market, prices typically remain above the actual price of STH, with short-term holders in profit and market confidence high. In a bear market, prices fall below the actual price of STH and remain below for an extended period, with short-term holders trapped and market sentiment low. Currently, Bitcoin has failed to close above $113,100 for two consecutive weeks, which is a clear warning signal.

The path of least resistance points downward

According to the current market conditions and people's views on Bitcoin, the trend of Bitcoin seems destined to decline in the short term. The short-term target price is $103,800, and it is very likely to test the important $100,000 level in the coming days or weeks.

The “path of least resistance” is an important concept in technical analysis, describing how prices will choose to move in the direction with the least resistance when faced with multiple possible trends. The current market structure shows that the downward resistance is clearly less than the upward resistance. To move upward, it needs to break through the actual price of $113,100 and digest the negative sentiment caused by the weakness in technology stocks and concerns over the AI bubble. Downward, there is momentum provided by a liquidation chain reaction and stop-loss orders.

Bitcoin's ability to maintain above $109,000 has masked growing concerns. Technical indicators suggest it may experience a downturn, while worries over major tech companies' spending in artificial intelligence have also shaken the related market. Under these multiple pressures, investors should prepare for short-term volatility and closely monitor the defense of the support level at $103,800.