XRP Key Countdown in October! Ripple's banking license and ETF decision will change the trend, BTC returns to $115,000

Ripple (XRP) fell below $3 after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the Spot ETF, erasing the gains from August and exacerbating bearish sentiment in the market. However, October will be a crucial moment for Ripple and XRP: the approval of the Spot ETF and a ruling on U.S. chartered bank licenses may come simultaneously, serving as a significant catalyst for price movement.

At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) has returned to $115,000 driven by institutional accumulation, and the flow of ETF funds has become a key variable in short-term price movement.

XRP falls below 3 USD, October becomes a key turning point

The SEC has postponed decisions on multiple Spot ETFs including XRP, causing XRP to fall to $2.9449, reversing the 10.94% pump seen in early August.

Bill Morgan, a lawyer supporting cryptocurrency, pointed out that Ripple's application for a national bank charter submitted on July 2, 2025, should be decided within 120 days according to OCC regulations, which falls right at the end of October.

If the bank license and ETF approval are implemented simultaneously, the adoption rate of XRP and the stablecoin RLUSD issued by Ripple is expected to soar, and the price may even reach a new historical high.

XRP Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance

Resistance level: $3.10 → If broken, it will test the August high of $3.3826, further challenging the July historical high of $3.6606.

Support level: $3.00 → A fall below this may trigger the 50-day EMA, further probing $2.7254.

The daily chart shows that XRP still retains bullish signals, but the short-term price movement will depend on the outcome of events in October.

BTC returns to $115,000, institutional buying supports

BTC quickly rebounded after falling below $115,000 for the first time in 11 trading days, mainly driven by institutional buying.

Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) increased its holdings by 430 BTC at a price of $119,666 per coin, bringing the total holdings to 629,376 coins, with a market value of over $74 billion.

MSTR updated its stock ATM guidance, flexibly issuing stock to purchase coins based on mNAV levels, providing clearer institutional buying signals to the market.

ETF Fund Flow and Market Sentiment

In mid-August, the US BTC and ETH Spot ETF market ended eight consecutive days of capital inflow, resulting in a net outflow:

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) experienced an outflow of $65.7 million.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) inflow of $12.7 million

The flow of funds into ETFs significantly affects the price of BTC. If funds flow back in, BTC is expected to challenge the historical high of $123,731; conversely, if outflows intensify, it may test the support at $100,000.

Key Focus for the Market Ahead

Investors should closely monitor the following events:

1. Progress of XRP Spot ETF Approval

2. Ripple's decision on the US banking license

3. Progress of the CLARITY Act Legislation in the United States

4. Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Data

5. ETF fund flow changes

Conclusion

October will be a key month for XRP and BTC. For XRP, the simultaneous approval of banking licenses and ETFs could bring significant breakthrough opportunities for price; for BTC, institutional buying and the flow of ETF funds will determine whether it can break through historical highs. Investors need to prepare their strategies ahead of the approaching events and closely monitor market signals. For more real-time quotes and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.