The Fed's interest rate decision is approaching, will Powell withstand the pressure to cut rates? The crypto market is on high alert.

The Fed's two-day policy meeting is about to conclude, and Chairman Powell's interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow is stirring market nerves. Despite President Trump continuously pressuring for a rate cut, the Fed is highly likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. Polymarket data shows a 97% probability of 'staying put'. This decision and Powell's statements, especially any dovish or hawkish inclinations, will have a direct impact on Bitcoin, Ethereum and other Crypto Assets prices, and Crypto Assets investors need to follow closely.

Trump's pressure is unlikely to change the Fed's stance, and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed will hold an interest rate meeting from July 29 to 30. As Chairman Jerome Powell is about to make a key interest rate decision, the Crypto Assets community is holding its breath for his speech on July 30. If the Fed releases dovish signals (hinting at potential easing in the future), it may drive a bull market in crypto; conversely, if it shows a hawkish stance (leaning towards tightening or maintaining), it could put pressure on the blockchain industry and digital asset valuations.

However, experts are generally skeptical about the Fed's interest rate cut this time. Despite President Trump repeatedly urging Powell to lower the interest rates, the Fed has maintained the target range for the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since last year. In the face of uncertainty regarding inflation trends and the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the economy, the Fed has adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" strategy.

"Powell will emphasize patience again," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, who believes the likelihood of a rate cut is very low. According to data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting is as high as 97%.

There are differences on the timing of interest rate cuts, and "data dependence" remains the core At the same time, Polymarket data shows that the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points is only 2.4%, while the likelihood of a cut of 50 basis points or more is less than 1%, considered highly unlikely. Similarly, the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points or more is also less than 1%, viewed as unlikely to occur.

Is a rate cut in September expected? What data should the crypto market follow? According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), investors currently expect a 62% probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in September. At that time, the Fed will have critical data such as the non-farm payroll reports for July and August, which will help assess the health of the U.S. economy and resilience of the labor market, providing a basis for potential interest rate adjustment decisions. This data will also be an important reference for crypto traders in evaluating market trends.

However, some economists believe that a rate cut in September may be premature, and even suggest that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year. Analysts generally expect Chairman Powell to reiterate the Fed's "data-dependent" approach to decision-making, emphasizing that future policy decisions will depend on subsequent economic data performance rather than a preset timetable. Ian Lingen, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, noted: "The reality is that the performance of the real economy also has a voice."

Internal differences arise, interest rate cut supporters focus on potential economic weakness It is worth noting that Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently advocated for a rate cut in July, citing signs of weakness beneath the surface of the economy. Although the overall economy appears strong, he pointed out that private sector job growth is sluggish, suggesting that the economy may need policy support. A rate cut would lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could help stabilize economic growth expectations, which is typically a positive factor for crypto market liquidity and risk appetite.

[Conclusion] Based on market predictions and expert opinions, it has become almost certain that the Fed will maintain interest rates at this meeting. Powell's post-meeting statement and press conference wording, especially the hints regarding future policy direction (dovish or hawkish), will be key catalysts for the short-term fluctuations in Crypto Assets. Investors in major coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and participants in the DeFi space need to closely follow Powell's remarks on inflation, economic outlook, and policy flexibility. Any hawkish signals could trigger a pullback in the crypto market, while a dovish tendency is expected to inject upward momentum into digital assets. The market will carefully interpret his statements to seek clues about the policy direction in the coming months, especially regarding the impact on the crypto market trend.